Well, after reading this, the market view is clean

Well, after reading this, the market view is clean

I can see it

If you can see it going like this

I think it would be good to bet higher right away

Well, let’s keep the market soaring every fomc

I should know that

The U.S. stock market is really impressive every day

I’m afraid I’m regretting that I bought and sold too conservatively than I thought

If you just keep it, you’ll get a lot of money

Mayor Oh Gun-young will review the FOMC in March. First of all… Personally, I think the dot plot itself was hawkish, and I think the contents of Powell’s press conference that took place afterwards were a dove for the queen, which allowed her to shed all her worries in the market. Should I say that it’s like giving one and receiving one? I think it was a picture of him throwing hawks and sending a fighting message because he was worried that the market might be worried. Let’s summarize the contents.

First of all, the base rate was frozen at 5.25 to 5.5 percent. I told you to look at the economic outlook that’s going to be released this time, rather than the base rate. I said we should pay attention to growth in that. The growth rate that was expected to be 1.4 percent has been raised to 2.1 percent. The mid- to long-term growth outlook has also been raised from 1.8 to 1.9 percent to 2.0 percent overall. The overall upward revision of the growth outlook … this is the point.

The reason why we need to pay attention to growth is that even if interest rates are high, if growth persists firmly, the economic stamina itself has changed. Then, shouldn’t we cut interest rates? Because the argument that we can endure it enough… Gosh.. It raised the growth outlook. Then??? I saw Chairman Powell’s remarks. It’s not just a strong job market or growth. Even if growth is strong, if prices stabilize, we can lower interest rates. Don’t worry~, he smoothed it while demonstrating Don’t worry about it.

The next thing to look at is prices. The price side has risen a little this year and there is no big change. Still, the market is worried that the Fed will become a little cautious looking at the price indicators for January and February. At the press conference, Powell started to evolve again. January and February are also seasonal. And to some extent, I don’t worry about the expected sea. Looking at the prices in January and February, I didn’t worry too much. Don’t worry. You don’t have to be swayed by talk of raising interest rates or no rate cuts within the year. I think that was a comment like this. Should I say that it’s clear where it hurts and it feels like I’m just scratching points? ^^

Next is the dot plot. Despite market concerns that it would change to two cuts within this year, we kept it three times. But, in my opinion, it’s a little bit ambiguous. The distribution of Fed members’ outlook has gone up quite a bit. And of course, the average on the dot plot was 4.6 percent. And the distribution of 19 people was 3.9 percent to 5.4 percent in December of last year. And this time it’s 4.4 percent to 5.4 percent. Yes, the people who were 3.9 percent have now gone extinct. The person who took the lowest shot is now 4.4 percent. What should I say? 80 percent not 85 percent, but 84 percent, so it could be rounded up to 90 percent when it’s 85 percent, but 84 percent, so it’s kind of like, I barely blocked it, and it’s still in the 80 percent range externally.

I told you that you have to look at the interest rate outlook for 25 to 26 years, rather than 24 years. Each of them has a 0.25% increase in interest rate outlooks. Previously, we saw it three times in 24 years, four times in 25 years, four times in 26 years. Now it’s changed to a 3.3.3 structure. It shows that the interest rate will remain in the 3% range in 26 years. And the mid- to long-term interest rate also rose to 2.6%, indicating that more members of the Fed are thinking about raising the neutral rate. Perhaps there will continue to be a controversy over the neutral rate within this year. And I think about that. Chairman Powell also says in a press conference that in the mid- to long-term, it will be difficult to go back to the old level of low interest rates. It’s in the same vein as Treasury Secretary Yellen’s recent confession. It tells us that the Higher for Longer will maintain the fairly high interest rate for longer than expected. Of course, the market is paying attention to immediate profits no matter what happens later, so they don’t even consider H4L

When asked by a reporter about his opinion on the financial environment, he seemed to have answered slightly in the same way. Rather, questions about quantitative tightening were mainly made up of questions about quantitative tightening. Fed members said they agreed on the pace of quantitative tightening to a considerable extent. In this way, the pace adjustment of QT could be announced at the FOMC in May. The pace adjustment was announced at the FOMC on May 1st, and it could be implemented in June. Anyway is expected to reduce QT, which is currently underway by $95 billion, to a certain extent in the near future.

Powell put it in the same vein as Lori Logan, who insisted on speed control of the QT. I mean, if we want to proceed with the QT more, and for a longer period of time, we need to slow it down a little bit. I emphasized a step backward to take two steps forward. To say the same thing as someone’s comment … means that the person’s comment is being bolstered. I think we need to pay more attention to Lori Logan’s comments in the future. He was the one who led the NYC Federal Reserve at the time of the 2019 Repo crisis. … Given that Powell mentioned the Repo crisis at the press conference … didn’t Logan say that at the meeting? “I’ve been through it in 2019, so I know…” It’s going to be pretty hard to beat someone who fights by saying, “I’ve tried it .

The Fed is a FOMC that gives you the feeling that you care about the market, or you hate the market breaking. That’s why the market cheered. There seem to be a lot of such general comments. Personally, I think the Fed’s intention is to take a one-step backward flow for two steps forward. We have to keep prices down. We have to pay attention to growth. And even if inflation stabilizes, it can recur at any time. That’s why you’ll need to keep a mid- to long-term check on inflation. Then you have to keep high interest rates for a long time. But H4L can shock growth. Through preventive rate cuts, the Fed seems to have chosen to keep high interest rates long-term while minimizing growth in the real economy and the impact on financial markets.

I don’t know if this strategy is going to work, but it could lead to a problem where the market becomes too complacent. Less essay. Thank you