Tesla’s Hojo Reorganization and FOMC Statement Brief Summarization

Tesla’s Hojo Reorganization and FOMC Statement Brief Summarization
$TSLA Summary – March 20, 2024
+:
1/ EV adoption +20-25% per year
2/ Cybertruck halo effect
3/ Price increase / Auto GM % bottom
4/ New Elon Musk Compensation Plan
5/ The Fed starts cutting interest rates.
6/ FSD Take Rate Increase/License Deals
7/ $25K-$30K Next Generation Launch FY’26
8/ FY’26 Optimus production begins

-:
1Q1 and FY’24 delivery performance too high
2/ China Price War
3/ MY inventory too high
4/ YoY car revs growth rate is now decreasing.
5/ Risk of P/E revaluation due to negative growth
6/ President Trump’s election is negative for electric vehicles

Any other fomc issues?
❖ 5 rate freeze (5.5%)
❖ Continues to expect 3 rate cuts in 2024
❖ CorePCE forecast for 2024 up 2.4% -> 2.6%
❖ Inflation eases but remains high
❖ Don’t expect rate cuts until there’s greater certainty that inflation is on its way to 2%

❖ Now expects two rate cuts in 2025 and fewer in 2026

• I think the Fed will likely raise its 2% inflation target soon (probably early 3%)

The macroeconomic flow is focused as it is
Qt adjustments see the possibility of freezing even without a cut in June

Prices are going to get lower and lower
the economy will be good
Asia is coming to life, too
The prospect of no recession remains.
FOMC Summary for March

1) I’m going to cut it three times (75bp) this year on a dot plot

2) I was going to cut it four times next year, but I’ll only do it three times.

3) I don’t really care about the high prices at the beginning of the year

4) The unemployment rate will go up a little bit

5) I haven’t decided on the QT speed adjustment yet, but we’re still discussing it and we’ll do it soon. From now on, I’ll give you a thin and long pad.

6) a great cheer for the mayor

1. Powell’s rate cut is not far away
2. Powell’s QT tapering I think we should do it soon
3. In the long run, interest rates won’t come back as low as they used to, but that’s what was special about it. I’m not sure yet. There’s a lot of uncertainty.
4. I think January February inflation has a seasonality problem. I won’t check this data, but I won’t over-react. January and February may be the bumpy road I mentioned before.
5. Whether high inflation in January and February is temporary or long-term will not be known until more data comes in.
6. Housing costs will definitely come down.
7. Inflation was high but core inflation was low
8. I see no signs of trouble in the labor market. Sustained prices are starting to see a level of growth and wage growth
9. So when asked if we’re going to do QT tapering in May: QT tapering soon means we’re going to do it quickly. I can’t give you a definite timing, but I think you know something roughly well
10. CBDC still has a long way to go.
11. The balance between labor supply and demand is improving
12. Green energy is important, but we are seeing sustainable growth.
13. The growth of the immigration market has helped to bring down the labor problem
14. Wage growth no longer seems to be the root of the problem of inflation.
15. The high inflation in January and February was our prediction.

Source: Similar guy