Trump said 37 times. The end of the war is close.
Today is the 102nd day.
April PPI +2.8%. It is the fastest rebound since July 2022. May exports +19.4%, imports +27.4% and trade balance surplus of $105.4B. It far exceeded expectations.
China has battled deflation for years. I cut interest rates and used stimulus measures, but they didn’t get caught. The match against Iran was lifted in 102 days.
Crude oil imports were reduced. By using inventories, it put pressure on oil prices to rise, and during the war, it built up energy cheaply. Even if Hormuz was blocked, it survived.
However, stocks are limited. No one is talking about where oil prices are going when China comes back to buy crude oil.
China may not have failed to catch deflation. It may have taken advantage of the timing of an external shock.
102 days before Iran. On the surface, China’s economy came back to life. Whether it was intention or luck. The result is the same. *NASDAQ 100 Index recovered from -4.1% to -1.9%
- Buy Low ($691.86 If drilled, there’s almost no stand for sale below; find the floor and rise)
- U.S.-Iran nuclear deal narrows down to four major issues and rises after good news reports suggest it can be negotiated for 15 years Up until the recent flare-up of armed conflict in the Middle East, Trump aides were negotiating with Iran over four key elements of the nuclear deal. The U.S. side claims that the deal could halt Iran’s nuclear program for about 15 years.
According to U.S. officials and diplomats briefed on confidential negotiations, the negotiations have advanced to a level far beyond discussions on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively blocked for 101 days.
The result is what U.S. officials describe as a “blurry outline of the agreement” — but the premise that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and hard-line politicians do not reverse the decision of its chief negotiator, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, or derail the much more specific deal the U.S. has proposed to hold in Switzerland this summer.
However, it is unclear whether the latest developments will backtrack on negotiations, including on Tuesday when Trump said Iran had shot down a U.S. military helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz and that the U.S. would have to respond.