The heat in the stock market is really hot. On the contrary, the Iran war seems to be recognized as if it’s already over… or as if it doesn’t have any impact. Something’s going to have a negative impact on the real economy. Stock prices are going to skyrocket. And that means that the gap between the real economy and the stock market is going to be bigger. So, as soon as possible, normalization is going to be the most important thing… Here’s a little bit of a concern.

First of all, it’s the Trump administration’s response. Rather than resolving something quickly, it feels like they are trying to respond leisurely by continuing a ceasefire. Of course, I don’t think it’s very appropriate to say that we have enough time, but I think it’s less like being chased. Maybe that’s why I’m cursing my SNS account and refraining from making comments such as “surrender quickly” (?). There are many reasons, but… It’s a solid support for the market… Isn’t it less burdensome for Trump? It was similar in April last year or early April this year, but when the stock market or the bond market was shaking too much, Trump seems to have tried to find a clue to the negotiations. By the way, the financial market is continuing a very solid trend now. Since the financial market is not shaking.. Trump will also feel less anxious about the Iran crisis. What’s interesting is that the market is going up with the expectation that Trump will somehow end the war smoothly because he’s scared. I’m not crying because I thought he would give me a gift… Is it a weird structure to not give a gift because he doesn’t cry

And so… speaking to investors, it seems like there’s a strong perception that war is an issue that we should care very little about. Well, I’m thinking about this. The war itself, or the Hormuz being stuck… The rise in oil prices… Rather than being an issue in itself, it’s a problem that affects interest rates, and I think that this is a bigger problem, is changing the liquidity environment. Countries have a certain amount of oil and other energy stocks. And there’s a war going on, but what if it’s going to be a long one? So, what if it’s going to be a long one? Concerns that the war is going to last a long time while stocks are tight… This could be a burden on the market.

But rather than this, the aftermath of this war has an impact on prices… Looking at this, it’s more about what actions the Fed will take later on. If the war drags on, Kevin Worthy will have to start playing with so many issues at the FOMC next June. It’s mid-June, and if the war continues until then… how do you rate the aftermath of the nearly four-month war… how do you take interest rate policy in an environment of slowing growth and inflation? That’s the key. If you suggest that you’re going to cut interest rates further, you could explode concerns about inflation entrenching and the Fed’s independence issues. If you stop cutting interest rates and you’re considering raising them… the market could reveal liquidity concerns. And those issues could be a burden on the bond market.

Yeah.. I don’t think we should ignore bond rates as well as oil prices. The bond market right now has all sorts of bad news on its own. Expectations for growth, concerns for prices, fears for fiscal deficits. So the fact that interest rates go up to a certain level means that macro issues can be protruding. Now that expectations for strong asset prices are eating up all the other bad news. And you need to look at the balance while considering these issues, rather than a radical shift. Essay short. Thank you.