Why Ukraine has advanced on Kursk
At dawn on August 6, Ukrainian forces suddenly launched offensive against Kursk, and as of August 9, they are effectively controlling nearly half of the Kursk region. The Suja region, which is the focal point for gas pipelines to Belarus and Hungary, is also occupied by Ukrainian forces. Ukraine is now advancing into the city of Kursk, the capital of the Kursk region, and yesterday devastated the Russian airbase, Lipetsk.
Why Did Ukraine Suddenly Attack Kursk? There has been much speculation because the Ukrainian government has yet to provide any information about the attack. What is clear, however, is that this attack was not a stabbing or two-pronged operation. No commander was instructed that the operation was merely “the goal is to make a scene and divert public attention from the direction of Pokrovsky,” reports Ukrainian media.
Ukraine launched an attack on Kursk with a clear strategic objective. Above all, the number of units that launched the attack was large, and the real core Ukrainian regular units were mobilized. The 22nd Mechanized Infantry Brigade, 82nd Airborne Brigade, 88th Mechanized Infantry Brigade, 116th Mechanized Infantry Brigade, 43rd Territorial Defense Brigade, 103rd Territorial Defense Brigade, 49th Artillery Brigade, Georgia Corps, and Free Russia Corps have been mobilized for the Kursk breakthrough confirmed so far.
Until recently, it was necessary to understand the situation on the Ukrainian front line in order to comprehend the strategic significance of the Kursk offensive. Recently, the Russian military planned a large-scale offensive in the direction of Kharkiv-Sumi, and the Ukrainian military was forming a reserve to prevent them. However, the Ukrainian military might have decided that it would be better to take a preemptive action before Russia destroyed the Sumy region. In other words, it enters the Kursk region and creates a buffer zone. This is due to the fact that this will disperse Russian forces and allow the Ukrainian military to attack and cut off supply lines from behind.
The U.S. election was also affected by the Ukrainian military’s advance into Kursk. Recently, Russia was confident of Trump’s chances of winning the election and saw that a ceasefire could be reached on the land it currently occupies. Then, before Trump’s election, all efforts were made with the intention of occupying as much eastern Ukraine as possible. They believed that if Rasputica were to hit soon after the summer and Trump won the U.S. presidential election in November, the war would be over and Russia’s current land would be occupied.
However, Harris overturned the current US presidential election, and from the standpoint of Ukraine, Russia, which misjudged the situation, thought that the opportunity had come because it had consumed the reserve forces excessively. Additionally, the United States allowed some US-made weapons to be used in mainland Russia. The Ukrainian military took this opportunity to strike Kursk. Ukraine intends to occupy the area and use it as a card in ceasefire negotiations, rather than stabbing Kursk or using it as a double whammy. They are building a position with the intention of mobilizing a large number of people and pressing them down.
However, the problem is that Russia’s defense is so lax that Ukrainian forces are advancing more than expected. They surrendered wherever the Russian troops went, and they faced a situation where they did not know how far to attack because they were in Muju. The word “go all the way to Moscow” was not just an expression. Given the current situation on August 8, there seems to be no difficulty for Ukrainian forces to move all the way to Kursk or Voronezh. However, Ukraine does not seem to have any intention or plans to forcibly occupy a large city. If a defense line is created without wasting troops, large cities will be in a very difficult situation, and Russia has no choice but to withdraw troops from Ukraine’s eastern front line.
Ukrainian geopolitician Mykhailo Kolodinski (М х ̆л л дзі К ь ̆) insisted that Ukraine’s borders pass through the central Volga River and the Caspian Sea to ensure security from the east. Of course, he is a man of the 1920s, and modern Ukraine cannot afford to think about that. But Ukraine’s expansion of the front line from the Donbas to the south-central part of Russia is embarrassing Russia, and the Kursk offensive will be another watershed moment in the war in Ukraine’s war, given that it has created a war zone in its favor.