Why I think Tesla Q1 performance is at rock bottom.
The most important thing when forecasting expected sales/profit is direction. Whether sales or profit or loss will continue to fall, turnaround, or continue to grow… No one can match what sales/profit will be, and it means nothing to match sales/profit. Even if you get it right, that’s because it’s luck. It’s almost impossible for even the finance team inside the company to match the sales/profit every time for the month. So what about people outside? Is it possible to predict sales/profit accurately with a very well-refined and limitedly informative quarterly/year report? No, I’m sure. However, with a comment in the quarterly/year report provided by the company, at least direction can be seen. So, when I predict sales/profit, I only judge that direction.
The figure below is a table comparing performance in the first quarter with performance in the same period last year.
Why the operating margin fell -5.9%p to 11.4% in 23 years -> 5.5% in 24 years
Based on the quarterly report, predicting the direction of the second quarter,
(Excluding the cost effect of the Severance Package)
Because of this, based on Yahoo Finance, 25 analysts expect operating margin to be around 8% and EPS to be 0.55, up 17% from the first quarter, when they expect second-quarter earnings.
Given Elon’s recent strong drive to cut costs, however, what if Automotive’s cost savings were greater than WS expectations, the energy business’s sales expansion was higher than they expected, and the FSD release in China or Europe was significantly higher by the end of the year? Elon Musk also said during his first quarter earnings call that this year’s sales would be better than last year. Is that really groundless? Elon has been so frank on his earnings call that there has never been a bad thing or a bad thing. I remember…
Therefore, there seems to be little reason for second-quarter earnings to be worse than first-quarter earnings or for WS to be worse than expected. Rather, it seems that it is a time when there are more positive factors. This is why I think first-quarter earnings are at rock bottom. However, the difference is whether it gets a little better or a little steeper in the short term. This is why I think first-quarter earnings are at rock bottom.
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