When approached in a historical context, it should be understood that the

Summary

• Unfinished European Parliament elections, extra time due to Macron’s early general election. The variable is China.
• Europe’s rightward shift? It’s not wrong, but it’s almost the same as the U.S. Democratic Party’s stance.
• It is an era of climate revisionism that combines its own economic interests and climate policy. A new economic model is needed.

(Main Points)

1. When approached in a historical context, it should be understood that the trend of anti-globalization, which began with the election of Brexit and Trump, is an election that has also been politically revealed in mainland Europe.
2. The center-right EPP, the main party, showed its determination to continue coalition with its two-party center-left S&D and three-party center-left RE (led by Macron of France). However, coalition with the far right or minimal policy cooperation is necessary. Among the far right, ECR (Meloni) is a more realistic alternative than pro-Russian ID (Le Pen).
3. Meloni seems to be a considerable realist, so she seems to have enough cards to satisfy the existing centrist coalition. If there is the next election in Italy and the next president of the European Commission, I think it’s worth it.
4. Le Pen is paying off 16 billion won in debt to a Russian military company.
5. Currently, China in Europe is a counterpart that will completely destroy the industrial base in the future.
6. According to the Czech Association for International Affairs, political parties with far-right IDs have consistently expressed opposition to the Chinese resolution. It is unknown to what extent China may have intervened in Le Pen and ID. It seems possible to speculate from Le Pen’s position, which was revealed through future election campaigns.
7. Energy hegemony is dominated by China, artificial intelligence hegemony is dominated by the United States, while Europe has nothing.
8. I think it will be an opportunity for the leftists in Europe to recognize the lesson that climate politics cannot be realized without securing leadership in the new energy industry in the era of the climate crisis.
9. In fact, since electric vehicles have already become a price-led market from a regulatory-led market to an autonomous market in the future, the abolition of the ban on internal combustion locomotive sales may be symbolic, but the impact on actual sales will not be significant.
10. Meanwhile, it should be noted that Denmark, which has a clear leadership position in wind power, still has the Greens as one party. In the end, it is important to learn that if climate policy cannot be linked to industrial policy, which is a matter of living, it will be politically affected.
11. If orthodox climateism is to aim for degrowth with only the climate crisis as the top priority, climate policy combined with its own economic interests can be called modified climateism.
12. Since the European Parliament elections, it is very difficult for us to simply ask for a rough ride as Europe’s climate policy has retreated. CBAM, in particular, is a policy that will be welcomed by both climate political groups and protectionist supporters, so it is likely to be promoted with bipartisan support.
13. The government should defend itself to some extent with climate industry policies and invest in renewable energy to establish an industrial base. It is inevitable to increase food independence and shift from an industrial state model to an investment state model. It is impossible to preemptively purchase key strategic assets abroad and delay major structural reform tasks in the stock market.

(Body)

The European Parliament elections are over. While the center-right EPP, which currently has executive chairman von der Leyen, has retained its first party, it can be summed up as an election in which two far-right parties have made strides.

The two far-right countries are ID and ECR, and the ID’s leader is Le Pen of France and the ECR’s leader is Meloni of Italy. The two have different positions on Russia. Le Pen’s ID is pro-Russian, and Meloni is pro-Ukrai. Anti-immigrant positions are the same.

The far-right’s advance was already expected, but the increase in the number of seats was not as significant as expected. It is likely due to the Chinese spy scandal involving ID’s German AfD. Of course, the AfD nevertheless ranked second in Germany, beating the current ruling center-left coalition significantly. Therefore, it can be said that the majority of the media’s assessment that the far-right influence has increased due to this election is not wrong.

In a historical context, it should be understood that the trend of anti-globalization, which began with the election of Brexit and Trump, is an election that has also been politically revealed in mainland Europe. This was already foreseen in the farmers’ protests and the Dutch general election. Blue-collar workers who oppose Chinese electric vehicles and farmers who resist Ukrainian agricultural imports are both victims of the global single market expansion. Changes are required to respond to the climate crisis, and direct economic losses are inevitable unless there is special action. Immigration or refugees is a more existential conflict. Recent economic difficulties may have strengthened psychological resistance to outsiders, as it is compassionate between places. Unfortunately, these changes are unlikely to be short-term. Rather, it should be defined as a new era.

So does far-right influence grow in Europe? Meloni depends.

The main party, the center-right EPP, has expressed its will to continue coalition with its two-party center-left S&D and three-party center-left RE (led by Macron of France). A three-party coalition could enable a majority of seats. In theory, it would be okay to hold the same seats as the past five years. However, the main opposition party cannot ignore the recent anti-immigration sentiment and the pace of climate policy, and even within the EPP, the Polish Citizens’ Coalition said it would not cooperate with the current coalition. Although the EPP has the largest number of seats, the EPP has so wide spectrum in the EPP that it is not easy to coordinate the situation. Therefore, coalition with the far right or minimal policy cooperation is necessary. Among the far right, the ECR (Meloni) is a more realistic alternative than the pro-Russian ID (Le Pen).

Compared to five years ago, the difference in the number of seats for each bargaining organization is not as large as expected, but the contents are inevitably different for this reason. Since the Green Party did well five years ago, the EPP-S&D-RE’s centrist coalition accepted many of the Green Party’s demands. There is also an evaluation that the Green Party exerted more influence than the percentage of seats. It led the anti-Russian struggle and implemented considerable climate politics through policies such as Net Zero, Green Deal, Repower EU, and CBAM. This affected the global climate politics wave