Weeks Issue Check: AI Industry Bubble Controversy and Checklist

11/10-14 Weeks Issue Check: AI Industry Bubble Controversy and Checklist

Recently, large technology stocks have been expanding their capital expenditures to secure the preemptive effect of the AI industry, but they are not showing a clear technological advantage. Most AI models are open-source, which has a low entry barrier, and standardized, making it difficult to maintain a monopoly advantage (the reason why hardware companies such as Nvidia were advantageous). Currently, the high demand in the cloud market has also temporarily increased, but the trend of growth is not continuously increasing.

In particular, as data center investment continues, there is a growing risk that supply will catch up and mistake “circular profit” as “structural profit” (value risk). In addition, research continues that even if AI companies secure a share, it is still difficult to monetize, and in fact, the decrease in new downloads of ChatGPT and the low financial performance of companies support this.

Against this backdrop, it has been pointed out that the “circular investment” structure between major companies such as Nvidia, Oracle, AMD, and OpenAI is similar to past demand inflation. On top of that, as the share of market capitalization of the top 10 technology stocks exceeded that of the 2000 bubble, anxiety that AI is becoming a new center of the stock market bubble has increased.

More fundamentally, high-income consumption and technology capital expenditures have been supporting the economy as the U.S. economy has been reorganized into a K-shaped structure, and the fact that a decline in the stock market can collapse is a key factor in increasing market volatility. In other words, if a recession used to be the cause of a decline in the stock market, a decline in the stock market is now changing into a structure that can cause a recession. In this case, the selling of major suppliers such as CTA funds is likely to strengthen, and if market liquidity does not sufficiently absorb it in a situation where the valuation burden is high, volatility will inevitably increase in the short term.

Future checklist
① Profitability: Margin Decline vs. High Growth
② Investment Efficiency: Low Utilization Against Capital Expenditure Growth
③ Market Penetration: Whether New User Indicators (Downloads, DAUs/MAUs) Slows Down
④ Customer Leave: Stalled sales per customer or accelerated customer leave
⑤ Transactional Transparency: Circular investment (inflating sales through equity/contracts) between companies
⑥ Cash flow: Whether free cash flow or operating cash flow deteriorates

In the midst of this, we have an important schedule: Nvidia KubeCon and Cloud Native Conna 2025 (11/10-13)

Some sessions will begin on the 09th (Sunday), and Nvidia’s KubeCon schedule is a key message to the AI market. AI is no longer just a bubble stage, and it presents a way to utilize expensive resources such as GPUs as efficiently as possible without wasting them, and to provide large-scale services for AI models stably and cost-effectively through Kubernetes. This means that AI has entered a stage of generating real profits beyond innovation, and it can quell short-term overheating concerns with practical operational capabilities. In particular, it presents technical parts every day from the month to the day when efficiency, cost reduction, actual deployment and commercialization, and reliable vision for AI future are presented.

It will not affect the stock market immediately, but it is a schedule that those who pay attention to the technical part must refer to in that it presents changes and developments in the AI industry in the future through their presentation and technology. After all, bubbles can also be a good opportunity if profitability and technology growth continue faster than expected. AMD’s Investor Day event on the 11th and Nvidia’s Supercomputing Conference on the 15th are also highlighted. After all, amid the ongoing bubble controversy, technology conferences of key companies are drawing attention

*a weekly schedule

November 10 (Monday)
China: Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index (09th)
Eurozone: Sentix Investor Confidence Index
Report: U.S. Department of Agriculture WASDE (World Grain Supply and Demand Outlook)
Events: Gilead Sciences American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases, Stifel Healthcare Conference
Bonds: U.S. 3-year Treasury bid
LOADING PERFORMANCE: Berrick Mining (B), Tyson Foods (TSN), KE Holdings (BEKE), Monday Dotcom (MNDY)
Long-Term Earnings: Coreweave CRWV, Occidental OXY, Rocket Lab RKLB, AST SpaceMobile ASTS, and RGTI
Korea Performance: DB Hi-tech, NHN, LG Household & Health Care, Doosan, Batech, Shinhan Holdings, Hive, KEPCO KPS, etc

November 11 (Tue)
China: New Loans
Germany’s ZEW Economic Expectations Index
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the U.S
Remarks: Director Barr (AI and Innovation)
Companies: AMD Investor Day Events
Companies: Alibaba, Liberation Day
Loading Performance: SEA (SE), AngloGold (AU), Navius (NBIS)
Long-term Performance: OKLO
Korea Performance: PharmaResearch, SK Networks, The Bulyu Games, NCsoft, Woori Finance, WeMade, Com2uS, etc.

11/12 (Wednesday)
Korea: Unemployment Rate
Germany: Consumer Zamluga Index
Report: OPEC Crude Oil Market Report
Talks: Eurozone Finance Ministers’ Meeting
Bonds: U.S. 10-year Treasury bid
Remarks: Williams, Paulson, Bostic President, Waller Directors (Payment Market), Myron Directors (Discussion)
LOADING PERFORMANCE: Tencent Music (TME), Circle Internet (CRCL), On Holdings (ON), Global Foundry (GFS)
Long-Term Earnings: Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Korea Performance: JYP, Neowiz, Lotte Chemical, Pearl Abyss, etc

November 13 (Thursday)
Korea: Option Expiration Date
UK: GDP growth, industrial production, import and export statistics
Eurozone: Industrial Production
US: Consumer Price Index, Non-agricultural Productivity, Unit Labor Costs
Report: IEA Crude Oil Market Report
Talks: EU Finance Ministers’ Meeting
Bank: Korea Monetary Policy Board
Bonds: U.S. 30-year Treasury bid
Remarks: Williams, Musalam, Hamec, Bostic President
Loaded Earnings: Disney (DIS), Jindong Dotcom (JD)
Market performance: AMAT (AMAT)
Korea Performance: Samsung Life Insurance, Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance, LG, JB Financial, etc

November 14 (Friday)
Korea: Export-Import Price Index
China: Housing Price, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment, Unemployment Rate
Eurozone: Economic Forecast, GDP Growth
US: Corporate Inventory
Remarks: Schmidt, President Logan
Loaded Earnings: American Bitcoin (ABTC)
Long-term performance: