Vitor Abreu, an adviser to Actgio on oil

Vitor Abreu, an adviser to Actgio on oil exploration, said that there is a 20% chance that if you sell five, you will get one. And people say that this was too natural.

However, we must first consider whether the probability is independent or dependent. The above logic is not established if the probability is independent.

Let’s say, for example, that there are five beads in a black bag, one of which is red and the other of which is white. If one bead is pulled out, the probability of getting white is 20%. However, if the picked bead is not added again, the probability increases, and if you try 5 times, the white bead will be pulled out. This is the dependent concept of probability. However, if the picked bead is put back into the bag, the probability continues to be 20%. This is the probability of independence.

The premise of this oil field is that there must be a 100% chance of oil in this area. Because there must be white beads in the bag… And I don’t know what it is, but it must be premised that there must be one out of five places in order to be 100% by drilling five times in that large area. Is it possible? If I dig a well in my neighborhood and there is no water coming out, does the probability of water coming out if I go to my house 100m away and dig out? I don’t know. How is this logic possible…

For probability to increase, this has to be dependent. But how can genetic wave be dependent?

I don’t understand this very well. If the probability is an independent variable, it is the same as 20% no matter how many times you do it, and if the probability is a dependent variable, you will be 100% successful if you do it 5 times.

I wonder how it came out that if the oil field exploration is not here, there is a high probability that it will come out there?

For this to happen, the probability of oil or gas at the five sites to be drilled has to be 100%. Is this possible???
I don’t know, but I think I’ll need to explain that first if possible.

In other words, the probability of oil or gas coming out must be 100% premised.

There is also a variable called economics. In other words, the probability of appearing must also be multiplied by the economic variable to be a true probability.
If the probability of coming out is 20% times the probability of economic feasibility is 30%, the overall probability is 6%.

It’s amazing that neither the journalist nor the media raise any questions about these issues…
(It’s not because the reporter is all ignorant…)