Two things I found interesting about Ark’s report
- Never anticipate a botched robotaxi
- Target stock prices for 2029 less than doubled from bear case ($2,000) and bull case ($3,100)
- It’s just a time difference (or global expansion speed)
- Optimus excluded from analysis
- Optimus is already doing significant work in the factory, but it’s weird to take it out
- There’s a reason. If Optimus is included in this analysis, the minimum price target is at least $10,000
- I’m sure you’ll be criticized for being a fraud, and you’ll be criticized
To meet Ark’s previously announced target price of $467 for 2024, we need three things below
- Elon compensation bill to be voted on again (+Texas corporation relocation)
- Q2 Earnings Surprise (confirmed Q1 was bottom of earnings)
- I need to convince everyone that Tesla is an AI company this year, not just the cloud-caught “long-term vision announcement” when the robotaxi announcement was made on August 8th (a company that makes money from AI services)