I’m sure you all know that the TSLA earnings release is on January 29.
My idea was that once before the earnings day, TSLA would have big whales up from $488 to $500, so individual investors would take a profit and then check the earnings and move back.
This idea remains the same now, but the 10-year Treasury yield is going to 5% so fast that we decided to think of two directions to respond.

First of all, if I explain the preconditions

1. The 10-year will go by 5%.
2. When the 10-year rate goes above 5%, the stock market crashes, but that’s the bottom of the stock market this year and the opportunity to buy low. The reason is that the U.S. government or the FED U.S. economy will not be allowed to collapse, so it will fall below the 5% level. They will do anything to do that.
   That’s the precondition.

Let me sort out the number of cases.

1. From a technical analysis, the highest probability on the current benchmark is that the 10-year is going to be sideways because it’s stuck at 4.7 to 4.8, and if it’s short, if it’s long, it’s going to be a two-week upward cycle and depending on the strength of the upward trend, it can come up to the high point. The reason is that the big whales that you can’t sell yet will be trying to sell at a good price and go out

If this unfolds, as I previously told you, Tesla will sell back from 488 to 500 and keep its cash weight at 50% and TSLA at 50%.
Even if the performance is good and it surges, there is a 50% share, and you can check the support level of $500 and use the remaining 50% cash to buy it.
If the performance announcement is bad, you can buy it in installments at a good price because you have 50% cash.

2. If the 10-year rises to 5% within January, I believe that this will be completed in January of this year’s adjustment and that the upward trend will continue thereafter. I think it will be over in the short term, although it will be heavily adjusted after getting hit in a few months. Tesla is expected to continue to rise after the earnings report on January 29, so it will maintain its buy and hold strategy while controlling its leverage in the middle.

I summarized it in two cases, and again, the key depends on the movement of the 10-year interest rate.

Lastly, the U.S. economy is good, but the stock market has never been on a downward trend in the long run. If the growth rate exceeds the inflation rate, the stock market will continue to rise.
I think the real long decline is the opposite or when there’s a recession,
Do you think the U.S. economy is seeing inflation rates exceed growth rates or is approaching a recession?
You can decide the investment direction as an answer to this question, and technical analysis will have good results if you use it to recognize certain market changes, such as wind odometer and compass.