Trump pushes again for end of Russia-U.S.

1) USD-Won falls amid Korea-U.S. trade agreement expectations
Last night, the dollar-won (REGN) exchange rate closed around 1,417 won, down about 5 won from the previous day. The KOSPI surged and the won was relatively strong as optimism in trade negotiations between South Korea and the U.S. has emerged. Expectations have grown that the $350 billion agreement on investment in the U.S. will be reached without much impact on the foreign exchange market. With Fed director Christopher Waller supporting a 25 basis point cut, the euro rose by about 0.4% at one point as French Prime Minister Sebastian LeCornu handed over two no-confidence votes

2) Waller Calls for Careful Cuts. Myron Reclaims 50bp Cut
Christopher Waller, a Fed board member who is considered a candidate for the next Fed chair, noted that the benchmark interest rate could be cut by another 25 basis points to support the weakening labor market. “If you don’t want to make a mistake, you have to cut it by 25 basis points carefully and watch the situation. That way, we can see better what to do,” he stressed. First, let’s cut 25 basis points at the end of October and wait and see the situation, and if massive layoffs and spending cuts become a reality due to prolonged government shutdowns, there could be a big hit to growth in the fourth quarter. Stephen Myron reiterates call for a 50 basis point cut this month, saying trade tensions increase economic uncertainty and downside risks to growth

3) Trump pushes again for end of Russia-U.S. war
Trump, who has reached a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, is now set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. “I believe great progress has been made,” Trump said after a phone call with Putin. Trump and Putin also mentioned that they discussed the possibility of resuming U.S.-Russia trade after the end of the war. The call comes a day before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the White House. Trump said he would share the content of his conversation with Putin with Zelensky

4) China to buy oil from Canada amid conflict with U.S
Canada’s crude exports to China are headed for their largest ever as China turns to other sources amid an ongoing trade conflict with the United States. About 5 million barrels of crude oil were shipped from Vancouver’s port in October, the highest on record as of mid-month, with more than 70% of oil shipments from Vancouver heading to China, according to Votech. Canadian heavy crude prices hit highest level since July despite seasonal off-season, helped by demand for crude in Asia

5) ECB chief ‘well positioned to deal with future shocks’
Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), diagnosed that the current level of interest rates is appropriate to respond to uncertainties or shocks in the future. Lagarde said that risks to inflation and growth are more balanced, and expressed satisfaction with the current situation, where both inflation and interest rates are close to the 2% level. “We believe that we are in a good position, and we see that we are well positioned to respond to any future shocks,” he noted
(자료: Bloomberg News)