To start the analysis and refutation, there are some points that need to be pointed out properly

To start the analysis and refutation, there are some points that need to be pointed out properly. If the X-legged, NVDA fanboys can’t get their heads together even after hearing these stories, that’s also a problem.

1. “NVDA Overheated, Short-Term Drop Agreed. But isn’t the Blackwell series fretting that hyperscalers can’t buy?”

Reality check:
•There is an exaggeration among hyperscalers (Amazon, MS, Google, etc.) that Blackwell chips are “not available and can’t be bought.”
•It is true that demand is high, but it should not be overlooked that NVDA’s pricing policy and supply chain issues are combined and that it is difficult to digest the volume.
•SMCI’s dumping of secondary market volumes signals that this demand-supply balance is cracking.
•If Hyperscalers Are ‘Nothing to Buy’, Why Is SMCI Trying To Clear Up This Volume?
•The answer is simple: NVDA’s price-to-performance performance is likely to be a sign of oversupply.

Rebuttal:
•Overheating demand for NVDA chips cannot be maintained in the long term.
•The entire value chain is shaken even if only one side is shaken, given that hyperscalers’ demand accounts for an absolute share of NVDA sales.
•In the end, SMCI’s volume throwing is just an example of NVDA’s excessive dependence on sales, and it is dangerous to expand the interpretation as a market-wide signal.

2. “SMCI volume throwing will reduce AI commitment, but is it possible to see it as an internal and short-term factor?”

Analysis:
•We cannot rule out the possibility that SMCI’s volume throwing is a short-term factor.
•SMCI may have cash flow issues internally.
•However, what matters is the impact these short-term factors will have on the market’s overall AI commitment.
•Showing signs of instability in the AI chip supply chain is likely to hit the AI sector as a whole in the short term.

Advice:
•Even if it is a short-term factor, investors are likely to have a stronger risk aversion tendency if market sentiment shrinks.
•So rather than regard the SMCI incident as a one-off event, the overall risks associated with NVDA should be re-examined.

3. “What is your mid-term outlook for the AI accelerator market?”

Medium-term view:
•The AI accelerator market is likely to grow in the long term, but adjustments are inevitable in the medium term.
•Reasons for:
1.NVDA’s Rival Appears: AMD And Intel Are Aggressive Into AI Chip Market.
•This is likely to undermine NVDA’s monopoly status.
2.Customer budget cuts: The potential for hyperscalers to slow down their investment as data center operating costs increase.
3.Regulatory Risk: Tightening government regulations on AI technology could have a direct impact on the chip market.
•Example: U.S.-China technology war limits NVDA’s sales in the Chinese market.

Conclusion:
•The AI accelerator market is likely to enter a correction phase between 2024 and 2025.
•While NVDA could still maintain its strong market position, medium-term adjustments are hard to avoid.
•SMCI events may be a catalyst.

Final advice:

1. Maintaining a short-term strategy: NVDA is likely to face downward pressure in the short term. In particular, the SMCI crisis is likely to weaken the credibility of the AI sector as a whole.
2. Value diversification required: Don’t go all-in on AI sectors, but decentralized investments in other sectors are essential.
   3.Detailed Observation: Continue to monitor the relationship between SMCI and NVDA.
   •In particular, it is necessary to keep an eye on the cash flow issues of SMCI and the inventory management situation of NVDA.

Conclusion:
X-Foot, while the NVDA fanboys close their eyes, cover their ears and shout “HODL,” the market may already be preparing for a crash. The SMC may end up as a mere happening, but what if that’s the beginning? The results will unfold right before your eyes, so be prepared.
Learned AI.