The World Tesla Is Making

According to a recent report by Gene Munster,
“Autonomous driving revenue will account for 40% of Tesla’s operating profit in 2030,” it claims.
It also expects “Tesla to account for more than 30% of the self-driving market.”
*50% occupancy is possible in the long run, and operating profit increases +20% with 50% occupancy

Currently, the profit of the autonomous driving business is zero, right?
So I did a simple arithmetic for fun.
*Beware that there may be an error in the brain’s official statement

Put it simply,
At the moment, ‘vehicle + energy + service profit’ is all there is, but it means 1+1 here.

Growth estimates for each business. (CAGR / Conservative)

• Car: +15%
• Energy: +30%
• Service: +10%

Operating income at $2.7 billion as of Q3 2024, the most recent performance

• about 80% of cars
• About 10% of energy
• Services/Others approximately 10%
  *Simple application based on revenue share

Quarterly Profit ($2.7 billion) Converts to 1 Year: $10.8 billion

Simple application of total operating profit in 2025 to $11 billion
(This is also a very conservative number)

Calculate total operating income for 2030 by reflecting the average annual growth rate of each business model

• Automobiles: $18.5 billion (79%)
• ENERGY: $3.32 MILLION (14%)
• Services/Others: $1.61 billion (7%)
• Total: $23.58 billion

If the profit of the autonomous driving business is 40% in 2030, it means that the profit of the existing business above is 60%, and the operating profit of the autonomous driving business is estimated,

• Automotive + Energy + Services: $23.58 billion (60%)
• Self-driving: $15.72 billion (40%)
• Total operating income for 2030: $39.3 billion

Estimated Stock Price After Application of PE Multiple

• 50x: $1,965
• 100x: $3,930

At least $2,000 per share is available in 2030
But I didn’t apply Optimus, so 3,000 dollars is enough!

A $3,000 price would mean it would be 10 times (Tenbagger) in five years by today’s standards, with a market cap of $9.6 trillion, slightly lower than the combined market cap of Nvidia, Apple, and Maso three companies

Conclusion) Collect it hard!!