The U.S. market initially started lower on rising oil prices and uncertainty in the war in Iran, but recovered from the decline and closed flat in sympathy with what Trump and war secretary Hegseth said was that the war was going on as scheduled and would end in a short period of time. A buy-th dip led by big tech stocks came out, but future stock market movements will fluctuate depending on the direction of oil prices as there is still anxiety over the blockade of Hormuz.
People’s past experiences in the war remember the learning effect that the war will not have a long-term effect on the stock market. People seem to want the best scenario of this war against Iran to unfold like the time when the U.S. and multinational forces toppled the Hussein regime in Iraq, which invaded Kuwait in the past 90 years. It is the sudden invasion of Kuwait due to a combination of reasons, including Kuwait’s failure to write off debts owed during the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988) in 1990 and the oilfield problem in the border region.
After this incident, the United States organized a multinational military force in countries around the world under the operational name Operation Desert Shield and attacked Iraq by pinging troops and money. At this time, the missile was first broadcast on TV, and it became the beginning of a war that was broadcasted. As expected, it was a war that easily extracted the Hussein regime with the absolute superiority of the troops. At that time, when the news that an explosion was heard in Iraq from the Reuters terminal, which had just finished studying and started working as a foreign exchange dealer junior, and was subscribing at an expensive price came out, our bread at the time instructed us to purchase the war breakout = dollar, which had been officially passed down until then. However, at that time, I opposed this war, claiming that it was a war that resulted in results and was like an entertainment game, and I was the only one who sold dollars and made a lot of money, but I remember that my working life was tired because I was portrayed as a person who did not listen to me within the organization. So, a few months later, I will jump to the catapult…
U.S. investors bought the dip expecting a scenario similar to that of the Iraq attack in 1990. Since the modern war is a missile and air war, I doubt how long Iran will last, but what is worrisome is that the Middle East’s rebel forces, including Iran, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, will stage terrorist attacks against the Western world like they did during the 9/11 war. Probably, 99 percent of the attacks will take place. However, if it is in the Middle East, the impact will be small, but I think this will also be a variable that will shake the market if it takes place in the U.S. or the Western world.
Anyway, this is the time for uncertainty. At a time when no one knows which scenario will be right, making a reckless bet would be like jumping on the fire. Time to see. Someone like me who cleaned up their stocks last week has a chance and is aiming for it. You can take a chance in a crisis because you have liquidated cash. That’s why securing adequate cash is always necessary. Crisis is said to be risk and opportunity, so seize your chance. The god of opportunity is only in front of you and not in the back of your head… Everyone, fight for it.
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