The U.S. CPI for September, which had been postponed due to the U.S. shutdown, was better than expected. The market cheered. The FED rate cut next week was almost seen as a foregone conclusion, and all three major indexes reached yearly highs with the expectation that additional rate cuts would be made in December. If you just keep it cool, you can only cut interest rates under the condition that inflation is maintained at a 3% annual rate. If so, it is again a U.S.-China tariff agreement. The U.S.-China summit will naturally move to the U.S.-China summit during APEC as the scope of inflationary movements will be determined by the conclusion of the U.S.-China tariff.

Ford performed well yesterday, probably because many Ford cars have been sold due to the imposition of tariffs on foreign cars. This is what the world is going to be like. First of all, congratulations to Hanwha on its advance to the Korean Series. Hanwha’s advance to the Korean Series is also a result of its poor performance, bringing in good rookies through annual drafts. Ovation for the last place… And Korea’s uniqueness, which has been worrying about national defense and self-defense amid confrontation with North Korea throughout the year, is playing havoc. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, European countries cut their defense budgets, but as Russia invaded Ukraine and the United States, the world’s police force, declared that they would no longer work as police officers, European countries faced a problem that they had to modernize their military equipment. However, European defense companies are immediately short of facilities to build weapons while reducing production facilities when demand is low. As a result, Korea’s defense industry is hot these days, with alternatives being K-bangsan and fishing. As Middle Eastern countries also increase their military spending due to Israel’s attack on Palestine, our defense industry is drawing attention.

Things go around in the world. Just like the words “塞翁” and “福” (Ahn Ji-bok), “Blessed” are all about life. Still, it is also life that only those who are prepared can benefit from change, as if the saying goes, “Heaven helps those who help themselves.” At a time when the U.S. growth depends on high-income earners, the U.S. government’s efforts to expand consumption to the middle class by lowering interest rates have fortunately kept its CPI low yesterday, but the U.S., which has to grow through consumption due to falling consumer sentiment index, is on a tightrope. Still, Heinrich’s Law remains in his head.

There was an article on MarketWatch today, “Why 10-year Treasury field may hit 6% in next year or two on ‘problematic’ inflation.” Literally, problematic inflation is a serious economic pathology that can shake the foundation of the economy, impoverish the lives of the people, and cause social instability. Inflation can occur due to a number of factors, including supply-side inflation and tariff-induced inflation, as in the Ukraine war. I’m not talking about a pessimistic outlook on the rise in the market, but I’m saying that we should always be wary of rising stock prices due to the concentration of AI stocks and growth maintained by consumption of high-income groups. What’s the problem if the stock market rises through circulation and consumption falls below the middle class…

Option guys like us frequently serve as female team leaders even in the market. We are all too used to buying a call and buying a foot right away. However, since predictions about the huge macro situation must also be in one’s mind, we are always trying to write scenarios for the future market. The expression I learned in Sungmun General English, Heaven help who help themselves… I’m finally out of my hangover. Have a nice weekend. Have a drink of hangover… lol