The time has come… to add Tesla to the Wedbush ‘best ideas’ list.
Dan Ives: We add Tesla to the Wedbush ‘Best Ideas’ list, with an Outperform rating and a $550 price target.
Several times in Tesla’s story over the past decade, negative sentiment and market concerns have overwhelmed the narrative of this original global technology company. From the pressing production crisis of 2017/2018 to financing issues to the Musk/Twitter drama of 2022… and now, once again, Tesla is facing global negative sentiment and controversies related to the Musk/DOGE and Trump administration.
This is a significant test for Tesla bullies (including us) after a big sell.
Currently, the narrative about Tesla is led by bearishists, and many worries have arisen due to sluggish January-February sales in Europe, China and the United States, Musk controversy and brand concerns.
The questions investors are asking:
Will Musk’s controversy and brand concerns negatively impact Tesla’s core loyal customer base?
Will Tesla Lose Market Share To Chinese EV Rivals, Like BYD?
Is Musk running Tesla or is he focusing on DOGE/Trump?
Our answer:
This is the starting point of the most significant innovation and technological advancement cycle in Tesla’s history in the coming years.
It expects to launch a new model under $35,000 this summer, which will help propel global EV demand again, get Tesla back on track for growth and meet its annual production target of 2 million units.
The FSD, which will be launched in Austin, Texas in June, will usher in the era of Tesla’s autonomous driving, which we alone value at $1 trillion.
Self-driving technology will be the biggest transformation in the history of the automotive industry, and we believe Tesla will dominate the U.S. and global self-driving markets.
Over the next few years, other automakers will use Tesla’s FSD technology as an OEM, with Musk and Tesla expanding this self-driving ecosystem with Cybertruck.
We believe autonomous driving and Optimus will account for 90% of Tesla’s enterprise value, ultimately generating more than $2 trillion in enterprise value.
“Let’s talk about elephants”… Musk/DOGE controversy
Musk’s relationship with GE and Trump has raised major concerns for the Tesla brand, but global Tesla sales that will be impacted by this are estimated to be less than 5%.
Importantly, Musk expects to adjust the time allocation between Dogecoin and Tesla/SpaceX after 2025, thereby reducing the impact of these controversies.
We still believe that the best thing that happened to Musk and Tesla was that Trump was in the White House. This creates an environment for deregulation of self-driving technologies at the U.S. federal level and will positively influence Tesla’s long-term strategic vision.