The stock rose for the third straight day after the announcement of a Fed rate cut at 03:00 on Sept. 18.

The stock rose for the third straight day after the announcement of a Fed rate cut at 03:00 on Sept. 18.
The decline began on Tuesday, Sept. 23, with the release of PMI indicators and Powell’s overvalued comments. After falling for three consecutive days through Friday, Sept. 25, the Nasdaq rebounded early on Friday. It began to rebound at 1:20 a.m. and the VIX plunged.

I did an in-depth analysis through Gemini (AI).

I. Overview of Analysis and Key Conclusions
The report analyzes the root causes of a sharp rebound in stock prices and the accompanying plunge in the CBOE VIX index in the Nasdaq market in the U.S. around 1:30 a.m. on September 25, 2025 (the equivalent of 12:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, September 24). The move in that time zone is believed to be the result of a combination of technical reversals and high-impact stock catalysts that occurred after three consecutive days of declines, creating structural momentum.

Summary of Analysis Results
The Nasdaq’s sharp turnaround (with the plunge in VIX) is explained not by the release of specific macroeconomic indicators, but by a chain of micro-market structural factors and individual good news for tech stocks.

The reversal start point (12:30 PM EDT): After a three-day losing streak, the Nasdaq futures market experienced a temporary sell-off, reaching a key technical support (e.g., a put wall or a lower daily level).

At this point, an early rebound in Nasdaq futures began with the detection of a buying inflow of system trading and passive funds, which became the basis for triggering structural flows that triggered a sharp VIX drop in the volatile futures market.

Momentum Spread Catalytic: The early technical rebound turned into a sustainable rally through strong fundamental news. Bloomberg and other major media provided strong confidence in the tech sector that led the market’s slide, with reports that Intel Corp INTC had offered Apple Inc AAPL a potential investment and chipmaking partnership during the day. Intel shares jumped more than 6% on the news, shifting overall technology sentiment.

VIX Volatility Crush: The plunge in the VIX index was due to the liquidation of short-term put options positions that were bought for defensive purposes or reversal of hedging positions when the market fell. As the stock rebounded without breaking through support, option dealers had to buy stock futures in large numbers to hedge their positions, which accelerated the stock’s gains while sharply dampening the expected volatility (VIX).

II. Leading Market Environment: Background of ‘Powell Correction’ (Sept. 23-24 AM)

To analyze the Nasdaq surge, you need to understand the downward pressure of the previous three days. Markets quickly reflected the near-term favorable factors of the Fed’s rate cut, but they suffered a sharp turnaround due to the macroeconomic background and comments from the Fed chair.

2.1. Retreat of easing policy expectations (Post-September 18th)

On Sept. 18, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made its first rate cut of the year, lowering its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, in a range of 4.0% to 4.25%. It triggered a short-term rally in which major indexes set record highs for a third straight day. The rally, however, was short-lived.

A. Powell’s Asset Value Warning

Markets were immediately shocked on Tuesday (Sept. 23), when Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a speech to the Rhode Island Chamber of Commerce that “stock prices are fairly highly valued.” The six words dismissed short-term optimism from global investors.

Powell’s comments were not merely an expression of opinion, but were interpreted as a policy signal suggesting that the Fed was wary of the possibility of an asset bubble. Analysts likened it to former Chairman Alan Greenspan’s “irrational exuberance” comments in 1996, especially as valuation indicators on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were close to the level of the dot-com bubble era in 2000, amplifying questions about the sustainability of the tech rally. These warnings prompted investors to reconsider excessive risk-taking, resulting in the temporary elimination of the “Fed Put” (the Fed’s expectation of market downside defense), which has been considered a structural safety net for market gains.

B. Headwinds in macroeconomic indicators
Macroeconomic indicators released along with Powell’s comments also undermined expectations of further aggressive rate cuts by the Fed.

GDP AND EMPLOYMENT: The final revision of GDP for the second quarter, released on Wednesday, Sept. 24, was revised upward to a 3.8% annual growth rate (previously 3.3%) and the number of new weekly jobless claims also fell to 218,000.

Monetary Policy Tensions: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly has suggested two 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of the year are “reasonable prospects,” but Fed Director Adriana Kugler has expressed a hawkish view that rates should be frozen “for the time being,” citing accelerated inflation caused by tariffs.

These strong economic indicators suggested that upward risks to inflation still exist, reflecting what Powell referred to as a “two-sided risk” situation. Powell said there was “no risk-free path” and warned that easing too aggressively could leave inflation unfinished, meaning the pace of liquidity supply that markets had expected could slow down. As a result, the market lost momentum for the rally, continuing a three-day losing streak across Tuesday (-1.0%) and Wednesday (-0.3% expected).

III. 3-day adjustment and technical environment (during Sept. 24)
The decline, which continued into early trading on Wednesday, Sept. 24, is not just a price correction, but a sharp half in the second half