a prize for gold
The interpretation of gold can be a little complicated, so I’m attaching an explanation.
Gold at the trend inflection point in early January 2022. In the initial situation where spx collapses, gold prices do not collapse significantly, but rather rise. And then they collapse. It is thought that it is better to interpret that the price of gold is also correlated with quantitative easing and quantitative tightening.
Gold in the Covid trend inflection on February 19, 2020 It survives the market crush situation and rises again. It is thought that funds flowed into gold due to quantitative easing.
spx and gold during the US-China conflict decline in October 2018. Even at this time, gold plays a role as a safe asset. In this case, it has nothing to do with quantitative easing and austerity. It faithfully played its role as a safe asset.
GPT’s description:
Gold and SPX have a constant negative correlation, but they are highly volatile depending on economic conditions. Typically, gold is valued as a more attractive asset during periods of stock market decline or economic uncertainty, which can serve as a useful indicator for constructing an asset portfolio that can disperse risks to investors.
One of the typical methods used to analyze the correlation between gold and SPX is the calculation of correlation coefficient. The Pearson correlation coefficient is mainly used to analyze the relationship between gold and SPX’s daily or monthly price fluctuations. Traditional correlation coefficients have a value between -1 (complete negative correlation) and 1 (complete positive correlation), meaning that there is little correlation closer to zero. Based on historical data, negative correlations are often about -0.2 to -0.3, but the correlation coefficient can fluctuate depending on the situation.
Data from recent years has shown that the correlation between SPX and gold has tended to strengthen negative correlations, especially during times of financial crisis. For example:
2008 Financial Crisis: Gold prices rose while the stock market fell sharply, as investors recognized gold as a safe asset.
COVID-19 Pandemic 2020: Gold prices rose in the early days when the SPX was falling amid global economic uncertainty, but gold prices also remained strong as the SPX recovered on a large stimulus package.
As such, the correlation between gold and SPX is fluid, depending on market conditions and economic policy.
The price of gold is not an indicator directly related to the SPX, but is influenced by a number of factors. Key factors include.
Inflation: Gold is considered an inflation hedging instrument, and when prices rise, gold prices tend to rise as well.
Interest rates: Higher rates tend to lower gold prices as opportunity costs for holding gold increase, and lower rates could increase demand for gold, pushing gold prices higher.
Geopolitical risk: In situations like political instability, war, and financial crisis, investors will prefer safe assets, which will likely drive gold prices higher.
These factors affect the correlation with SPX.