The dollar, which doesn’t go down easily, and the financial war
1) USD-KRW 1420 range amid Fed cut expectations
Last night, the dollar-won (REGN) exchange rate closed at around 1,422 won, down 6 won from the previous day. The dollar index also declined in the global currency market. Kolpay pointed out that Powell did not contradict market expectations for two rate cuts this year. The Fed’s Beige Book said that U.S. economic activity has remained almost unchanged in recent weeks, employment has generally been stable, and prices have risen. Nomura withdrew its previous outlook for two additional rate cuts on the Bank of Korea’s monetary policy and is expected to continue its freeze stance until the end of next year. “Economic and financial stability conditions have become more complicated since May’s decision to cut interest rates, with housing prices overheating and the won continuing to weaken.”
2) Besent Can Cease Tariffs If China Delays Rare Earth Control
Asked about the imposition of 100% tariffs on China, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that it may go to a long-term ceasefire in exchange for delays in rare earth export controls. “We will have a comprehensive and collective response to this because China cannot manage supply chains or manufacturing processes around the world,” Bessent said. President Trump also expressed his view that his APEC meeting with President Xi Jinping will go ahead as scheduled. He also mentioned that trade talks with South Korea are in the “final stages.”
3) EU to discuss public procurement market protection measures
Discussions have begun on how much priority EU member states will give to companies in the region in the 2.5 trillion euro annual public procurement market. France is leading the discussion and wants to give preferential treatment to European companies in public procurement contracts, which account for about 15 percent of the EU’s gross domestic product (GDP). The strategy is to foster regional industries and at the same time respond to U.S. protectionist trade policies and moves to weaponize China’s key supply chains. Mario Draghi, former president of the European Central Bank (ECB), said last year that the EU must invest up to 800 billion euros in key industries each year in order to avoid the pain of decline
4) Argentine government bond prices soar
Argentine government bond prices surged after reports that U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is set to provide financial support to the Argentinian government. Axios reported Bessent’s remarks that the U.S. Treasury Department is again seeking to buy the Argentine peso in the spot market. Bessent’s remarks came after investor sentiment shrank the day before as President Trump expressed nuance that support would only be provided if the ruling party won the Argentine midterm elections, which served as a factor in stabilizing the market
5) Morgan Stanley Passes Goldman Sachs In Stock Trading
Morgan Stanley’s third-quarter stock trading performance beat expectations, beating all major competitors. Morgan Stanley said its stock trading revenue jumped 35% to $4.12 billion in the third quarter. As a result, Morgan Stanley shares jumped up to 7.4%, the biggest intraday gain since April. The six Wall Street banks that reported third-quarter earnings totaled $15.4 billion in stock trading
(자료: Bloomberg News)