Tensions are getting higher in the Middle

Tensions are getting higher in the Middle East, where Blinken is flying to the Middle East and working hard. I think I’ve convinced Netanyahu. I hope it doesn’t escalate into an Israel-Iran war. The Russia-Ukraine war is still at a loss… And if the war goes from here to the Middle East, it’s going to get really complicated. Anyway… the effect of easing tensions in the Middle East is that international oil prices have dropped pretty significantly, and the important variables in the market right now are not stimulating liquidity cuts like Encarry’s, but also boosting growth… The most important thing is not to relapse inflation. In that sense, I think oil prices are also one of the wild cards of concern.

The won-dollar exchange rate fell sharply the previous day. The dollar weakened in all directions… I think the biggest reason was the movement of the yen and the yuan. On the chart, the movement of the yuan appeared faster than the yen, and the won seemed to be harvesting the movement together. Yes, now… Perhaps it is because the market has been linked to the weakening of currencies such as the yuan and the yen for a considerable period of time… The movement of other currencies is the main factor in determining the won’s exchange rate. Among the numerous factors that determine the exchange rate… You look at the movement of the yen.

This can lead to a unique trend. Encarry liquidation often leads to a sharp decline in the stock market with the strong yen. If the won exchange rate is affected by the yen more than other factors… When the yen goes strong, the won goes strong, and the stock price goes down together. Yes, last August 5th and the day before, we had a unique composition that we didn’t see in the past, which is the fall of the exchange rate that comes with the plunge of the stock price. The dollar is a safe asset… There is a unique phenomenon in which the dollar, a safe asset, plunges as the stock price falls. First of all, the won has a strong tendency to harvest the yen exchange rate. Second of all, the market still has concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy. Let me point out these two things.

Huh? Isn’t the U.S. economy okay? You can say, “Well, I don’t think we’re going into a recession right now, but when we keep the current high interest rate, or when we’re going to cut interest rates too slowly, then the slowdown in growth can be sharp. And the job market sentiment in the U.S. is pretty much being a bellwether… The need for a quick rate cut may be highlighted, but there are concerns about inflation and… Stronger-than-expected asset market… Fear of Encarry… When the backs work together, the growth of the U.S. economy can contract. Contrary to the strong dollar and strong U.S. stock prices on the back of strong U.S. growth… Concerns Over Slowing U.S. Growth Weak Dollar & U.S. Stocks Weak… You can create a picture of that where the stock price is weak and the dollar is going to go down… We may encounter a picture that we are not familiar with.

If you look at the Eurozone stock price and the Japanese stock price… when the euro or yen is weak… You can see the stock market getting stronger. But there’s something interesting about it. In Korea, stock prices were strong during the strong won period, and stock prices were weak during the weak won period… And we say it like a formula. If the won is weak, the stock price will fall. So, wouldn’t it be awkward to have the same structure as the previous day? Sometimes I think about that. Maybe in Korea, like Japan and Europe, the won’s weakness and the stock price’s strength can go hand in hand. LOL. Yes, I’ve been thinking about this recently, but I’ll go into more detail in the future. Thank you.