Talk to the Mayor The 23rd story is to check out the Tesla 4680 battery productivity

• Excerpted from Samsung Securities –

WHAT’S THE STORY

Talk to the Mayor The 23rd story is to check out the Tesla 4680 battery productivity improvements and plans to develop four versions ahead of the Robotaxi unveiling event.

On the 3rd of the U.S. local time, a media outlet called “The Information” released an exclusive report saying that Tesla plans to introduce four versions of the 4680 battery in 2026, and reports began to be cited in Korea.

After Tesla CEO Elon Musk mentioned in July that he would close the business if the 4680 cell production improvement continued, the engineer in charge talked about the possibility of launching the product with an anode produced by a dry process during the fourth quarter.

Issue – Tesla 4680 Up to 72% Yield:

On September 15, Tesla posted a message celebrating the production of the 100 millionth 4,680 cell battery on its production line through its SNS, X.

It comes less than four months after it mentioned that it had produced its 50 millionth cell as of June 5.

Yields were estimated to be around 30% at the time of production of the 50 millionth cell on June 5, which was later said to produce more than 1,400 Cybertrucks per week on July 24, with yields reaching as high as 45%.

Since 50 million cells were produced in approximately 4 months, the production volume of 4680 cells per week is equivalent to 3.12 million units.

Converting this into annual battery capacity, it is 14.43 GWh, and considering the design capa per line (20 GWh), the yield is now estimated to be around 72%.

Improving yield that is difficult to see due to a successful positive electrode dry process:

Although there is limited information that can be found about the part where the yield improvement has been made rapidly in less than four months, it is difficult to say that the dry electrode process for both electrodes expected in the market has been applied.

This is because the battery cells dry-cathode on both electrodes are being tested on one Cybertruck and will be able to be produced during the fourth quarter through an earnings conference call in the second quarter.

Issue 2 – 4 dry positive electrodes 4 version planned news ahead of Robotaxi unveiling event:

Summarizing what was reported in the foreign media on the 3rd, Tesla said it would introduce four types of dry anode 4680 cells by 2026.

The media quoted by the official described the dry anode-based cell as 4680D, of which 4680 cells, called NC05, will be applied to Robotaxi, which is scheduled to be unveiled on October 10.

Considering that the 4680 battery, which has already produced up to 100 millionth cells, is using positive electrodes based on wet processes, the issue is whether mass production of 4680 cells based on dry positive electrodes will be materialized at this robo-taxi event.

Possibly listed as dry positive electrode development options:

According to Tesla’s comments and the development of supply lines so far, mass production of 4680 cells is estimated to increase productivity by responding only to the cathode through a dry process for the time being.

In addition, NC30 and NC50 include the introduction of silicon carbon to the cathode, and it is estimated that LG Energy Solution is already preparing Panasonic and others to produce 4680 cells and applying silicon cathode materials to the cathode.

Therefore, what is not separately mentioned in the NC05 and 20 characteristics may have been missed in the process of receiving and transferring the official’s words or that the four versions were just listed as options for mass production development of dry positive electrode 4680 cells.

Implications, Q4 4680 Yields Still To Watch From An Investment Perspective, And Positive Electrode Dry Success:

The meaning of the 100 millionth 4680 cell production announced in mid-September is that it has raised yields to more than 70% with existing wet-based positive electrodes.

It is possible that the improvement of productivity in the existing process and the application of the dry process in the negative electrode contributed to some extent.

However, to become a 4680 battery that can act as a game changer in the electric vehicle battery market, as Tesla CEO Elon Musk mentioned, it is necessary to confirm the mass productivity of the dry process at both electrodes.

Therefore, it is necessary to pay close attention to whether the relevant information will be mentioned at the RoboTaxi public event on October 10 or, as we talked about in the last earnings conference call, at what point in the fourth quarter the declaration of dry positive electrode production will be made.

From an investment perspective, if it is a 4680 mass production event where dry positive electrode success has not been confirmed, stock price movements are likely to be limited, while related value chains will be able to reap a premium if success is confirmed

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