RethinkX is an energy transition lab founded

RethinkX is an energy transition lab founded by Tony Seba that has argued since early on that carbon neutrality is possible only with Solar, Wind, and Battery. Their proposal was criticized all over the place at the time, but now it’s going as they say it, and now it’s recognized as a trend as Elon Musk has executed it with this observatory. Musk’s Fast and Tough: Tesla is all-in on the futurist vision that road traffic will be revolutionized by 2030!

In other words, RE100, which is currently being discussed, is a movement to procure 100% of the electricity used by its companies with renewable energy, but RethinkX has expanded all forms of energy as well as electricity beyond the corporate level to the national level. This requires three times the amount of power generation in theory, but in reality, the efficiency of thermal energy (electrification) is generally improved by more than 100%, so in reality, it can be doubled.

The background of this argument is the assumption that SWB prices have been falling exponentially under Wright’s law over the past few decades and will continue to fall (pictured above right). The condition of this law is that cumulative installation should double every three to four years, and since it has already become the cheapest among power sources, the installation speed is accelerating by making power sources such as coal, gas and nuclear power into stranded assets, and the exponential decline is expected to continue in the future.

With electrification, the amount of electricity required, that is, the amount of power generated by carbon neutrality, should be three times the current amount of power generation, and even if it is supplied by SWB, long-term storage devices (hydrogen, etc.) are essential. Instead, it is suggested that it will be much easier to install SWB, which will not be burdensome for installation because of the Near Zero Marginal Cost (Figure left). The amount of SW and B required by region is different, but this figure shows the proportion of each of the most economical investment possible. In other words, it is argued that the need for long-term storage devices may disappear if the power generation is three times higher than the current power generation, but if each is four times over-installed as shown in the figure.

The lower right figure illustrates California’s application of this condition: 285 TWh of electricity requirements, 227 TWh of transportation, 212 TWh of buildings, and 345 TWh of industry. An optimal investment would cover power generation, transportation, and homes, and an additional investment of a few percent would support the electrification of all energy…