US 🇺🇲

(Please read today’s message.)
-Powell, Fed, and Yellen failed

1. QE stimulates economy in case of low interest rate recession
2. Stimulating the economy quickly and frequently with big cuts to the 0% range in the event of a recession during the period of high interest rates

-There are signs of a recession now, but both of these lethal weapons are so vulnerable that it is difficult to use them all even if a recession occurs, and we are facing difficulties ahead of the election

-Your future driving may require very careful and sophisticated control
Forward

1. If interest rates are quickly lowered to a big cut, 1) accelerating the settlement of yen carry and 2) the Fed acknowledges the recession 3) stimulating inflation
   There’s a risk of back
2. The only option is to decide on the remaining three interest rates this year by 0.25%
   That cut is also not enough
   -It’s because it’s been in a state of tightening and high interest rates for the longest time in history
   This can make the current recession worse
   -For example
   1)There are signs that the real estate market will accelerate its downturn 2) Small and medium-sized regional banks are going bankrupt with corporate debt up to 3) Small and medium-sized businesses such as U.S. startups are going bankrupt with real estate debt 4) But short-term bonds that can be used to use emergency relief policies such as BTFP have been pulled out 5) Long-term bonds are now required, and even the U.S. financial position is not good enough (6) The risk of another default warning due to the largest debt and interest ever

-Then, I also wonder, who else will buy more non-bonds? Because that’s how much demand is needed to be able to issue long-term bonds at a low interest rate. But even that’s the reason why it’s hard
1)Demand for non-bonds decreases due to the risk of additional interest rate hikes by Japan 2) Demand for non-bonds in post-U.S. countries decreases due to the global block diagram 3) Demand decreases due to the narrowing of the interest rate gap with the U.S. due to the U.S. interest rate cut 4) The actual bid rate is decreasing
It’s because of the back

3. For the last remaining card, it seems that the answer to the current situation is that the Fed acknowledges that a recession is inevitable and tries to make big cuts in a row

-That’s what I have to do. When the recession and big cut come
At least 1) There is no risk of inflation. 2) Austerity will no longer be an issue. 3) The time difference between interest rate policy and the real economy is about 3-6 months. 4) If interest rates go down to the late 3% range in six months, funds from money market funds will be able to flow back into the asset market. 6) If you suffer from a recession and struggle, you should use welfare or stimulus measures, but with high interest rates, issuing long-term bond rates is not a burden. 7) There is no risk of stimulating inflation, so you can easily repeat rate cuts

4. But I’m also thinking about the worst-ca