Categories: 테슬라(TSLA)투자정보

Piper Sandler #TeslaReport

Piper Sandler analysts recently held two Tesla-related events to delve into Tesla’s energy storage and autonomous driving strategies.

In a report to customers last Sunday, we highlighted the 24 key points derived from these events.

1) Visit Megapack Facility

While Chinese companies are intensifying their competition in the stagnant cell market, global demand remains strong.
By 2030, the market is expected to need about 2 terawatt-hours of batteries, 20 times its 2023 level.
As battery technology matures, hardware can be commercialized, and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) will not be able to compete “on price competitiveness alone,” the investment bank said.
For Tesla to win the contract, it takes advantage of the entire ecosystem, including software and inverters, rather than focusing on offering the lowest price.
Chinese competitors are largely absent from the U.S. market as these long-term assets require ongoing services.
Geopolitical factors and factory locations pose challenges to Chinese suppliers in the U.S. market.
Megapacks can cost more than 80,000 pounds, which highlights the importance of local production because of their high transportation costs.
The new Shanghai facility, scheduled to be operational in 2025, will help Tesla compete more effectively in the Asian market.
Tesla Energy operates on a project basis, making it difficult to forecast long-term due to fluctuations in quarterly earnings.
Tesla is currently importing lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries and did not comment on the possibility of its own production using CATL machines.
Tesla’s strategy focuses on localization or internalization of production to prepare for a range of potential market scenarios.
Tesla Energy’s long-term gross margin target is around 20%, as is the rest of the sector.

2) FSD Community Tracker Webinar

The FSD Community Tracker is meant to evaluate how quickly Tesla’s FSD software improves in real-world environments.
Over the past six months, 107 users submitted their data using six different input methods.
Data submissions tend to increase for one to two months after the release of the new FSD software version.
Tracker participants are generally sincere, calm, objective, and use FSD regularly.
However, biased outliers can be identified and removed from the data.
The latest FSD version (v12.5.x) is an improvement over previous versions, with 220 to 251 miles to drive between critical interventions.
Using these absolute numbers, it is difficult to directly compare Tesla’s FSD with rivals such as Waymo.
It is also difficult to accurately determine the number of intervention-free miles required for a robotaxi.
Observing improvement trends rather than finding exact numbers is more useful for understanding the progress of FSD.
Although v12.5.x has improved, it has seen a slight drop in performance since its initial release, possibly because Tesla is preparing for third-generation hardware.
The intervention trend shows that FSD v12.5.x has “definitely improved” compared to previous versions.
However, analysts highlight that the performance of that version has still deteriorated since its initial release.
This may be because Tesla is preparing v12.5.x for use in third-generation hardware.

Piper analysts reaffirmed their “Overweight” rating on TSLA, offered a $300 price target, and recommended holding TSLA shares ahead of the robo-taxi event in October.

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