Nvidia options and supply and demand status

Figure 1. For Nvidia, we’re down with two Bearish Engulfing patterns. And especially since the EMA 20th day line (blue) is now starting to go down, I think we should still look conservative.

Figure 2. Looking at the options status, the range is set from 115 to 120.

With a lot of put options in the $115 range, $115 will be supportive and $120 will be resistance because a lot of call options are in the $115 range, while $115 put options bets are up and $120 call options bets are down.

$115 put option (upside bet)
5.35K —> 6.54K

$120 (upside bet down)
6.47K —> 5.42K

Figure 3. Delta Hetching Status: The dark gray part is the stock purchase of Nvidia for Delta Hetching by the market maker.

Here, delta hedging is that A sells the call option to B at a premium, and the call option that B has is that A buys the stock in advance in preparation for the stock price going up because A can exercise the right when the stock price goes up later and then A has to buy the stock at the price range where it’s exercised.

(For A, it is best that B cannot exercise the call option because the stock price does not rise.)

But if you look at the $120 range, you can see that the market maker has hatched it in dark gray at $120, and if it goes under $120, the market maker can start selling,

If all of this is sold, I don’t think there’s going to be a sell-off from the market maker at least until the $110 is breached.

Figure X. If you look at the supply and demand status, INFO Tech with semiconductors is at WEAKENGING and heading for the worst LAGGING. It’s a bad trend, and suggests the stock is likely to fall further.

Of course, the energy sector is positive because the energy sector is looking to go from LAGGING to IMPROVING again.

Figure 4. There was no particular problem with ASML’s performance, but the problem was guidance. When you look at the guidance, MISS was the largest, especially for Q3 guidance.

The consensus was 7.34B, but the result was 7.0B. If you look at the difference between the consensus and ESTIMATE in guidance for other quarters, there has never been a big difference. This sense of disparity has caused the stock price to fall significantly.

※ The analysis of Nvidia is also consistently ongoing at Nepcon, just like Tesla. Naver is offering a 50% discount, so please take this opportunity to refer to it! 🙂