[NVIDIA 3Q Performance Announcement]

[NVIDIA 3Q Performance Announcement]

According to foreign companies’ current 4Q sales estimates, many comments say it is conservative even if it is set at $18B, which is a higher Street Consensus than Sell-Side. The market’s base scenario seems to be that this guidance will exceed the consensus estimate.

In the end, I think we should pay attention to comments on how much CoWos bottlenecks are being resolved and the impact of the export ban to China, and I summarized the approximate foreign affairs atmosphere before the actual launch.

1) CoWoS Capa

Currently, the volume received from TSMC is said to be between 1000 and 2000 sheets per month. It is certain that it will increase in earnest from next year, but it is still unclear how much it will receive this year. In fact, how much we can get in 4Q (November-January) seems to be the factor that will have the biggest impact on Q4 guidance. (The amount we can produce per wafer and the GPU ASP are set to some extent.)

QoQ is expected to have an incremental effect of $4-5B in sales even if 1,000 sheets are added per month. Aggressive foreign companies such as HSBC are looking at 3Q->4Q sales forecasts of $16B->$21B, and this number seems to be melting.

2) L40S Upside

Expect China-bound volumes that do not require CoWoS capa to be around $2-3B per quarter. Upside elements of 4Q guidance if shipments start by the end of the year, although shipments haven’t started yet. HSBC is forecast to reflect around $1.2B in 4Q. (ASP = $8,000, Q = 150,000+)

3) China-bound export restrictions

Nvidia’s current volume to China is 10-15%. The market seems to be reflecting the effect of a $4B drop in sales next year. Although the company is a stance that does not have a significant impact, it may be a little shocked if you call the numbers conservatively. However, looking at the performance of new products that were released immediately in response to China’s export regulations, it is expected that there will be no significant impact on actual performance.