NVDA earnings report next week on Wednesday, 24.05.22. Since it was an unquestionable leader, we will create a market color based on the results.

NVDA has increased by 12m fwd EPS +437% over the past year. The market expects sales of 24.6 USD bil YoY +239% and operating profit of 16.3 USD bil YoY +658% for the quarter. This is a growth trend that makes the calculated Excel numbers suspicious.

Following the announcement of NVDA results, domestic semiconductors will follow suit. Let’s check the number of semiconductor parts stocks after a long time. In conclusion, there is no significant change in the performance estimates of parts companies. It is a good estimate of overall performance of semiconductors, but the optical illusion created by Samsung Electronics/SK Hynix is big. There is also expectation for HBM-related stocks. There is no significant change in the performance estimates of parts manufacturers used in legacy semiconductor processes. It seems that the consensus of the original profit QnC, which was announced well, is rebounding. I don’t see companies that are clearly changing their performance estimates like Comico (a subsidiary of Myco Ceramics Ceramic Heater).

• Random interpolation of interval authors without consensus
  ** Comico Consensus avg. Not included So companies aren’t cheap to multiples. It’s around 12m fwd P/E 15x. To bet boldly, we need to move up our performance estimates. However, from a different perspective, the consensus should be found in advance to boldly enter when it is urgently raised. Looking at the quarterly report at the end of the 1Q24 earnings season, the gloomy section of DRAM/NANDup seems to have passed. Due to the nature of small and medium-sized stocks, updating performance estimates takes some time or adjustments are large. We will check in advance so that you can make a bold bet if you drop multiple times at an unexpected time.