Next week is so important

Next week is so important

Figure 1. For Friday last week, it closed with a 1.11% rebound as it touched the bolinger band LOWER LIMIT to create an upper tail.
It is judged that the technical aspect is strong, and whether it will continue to rise depends on the performance of big techs next week.

Figure 2. I don’t know what the results will be, but according to Goldman Sachs’ report, the consensus for big tech is very high, and we need to show the results of GREAT, not just GOOD results.

Figure 3. We want to check the actual data on what basis Goldman Sachs is making this claim.

Yellow: Big Tech’s 24-year earnings management
Green : 493 24-year earnings cens excluding Big Tech

If you look closely at the figure, you can see that the earnings consensus of the seven big tech companies has been steadily raised to $624 in 24. As a result, expectations for performance and guidance for big tech are very high.

However, on the other hand, the consensus has been downgraded for 493 green companies, and the criteria for them to overcome are not high. However, the EARNING SURPRISE so far shows that it is very weak compared to other quarters.

Figure 4.
Once the results of seven companies were announced, Tesla and Google had not been so good, and now there are five left. It’s unclear how the five companies will be announced next week, but a total of 206 out of at least 500 companies have been announced,

If you look at the bottom left graph of Figure 4, you can see that the EARNING SURPRISE portion of CQ224 is very low compared to other years.

In other words, 493 companies’ consensus has been downgraded, but they are still struggling to record earnings surprises, and it is questionable how much more earnings surprises the other five will show in terms of earnings and guidance.

Of course, if Big Tech’s earnings don’t come out well, it could affect the index, and if the index falls, we should watch conservatively as ETFs linked to the index and major individual companies connected to ETFs could face downward pressure!

[Macro]