[NASDAQ -3% drop reason and response strategy in action]
- Nasdaq’s high point was July 11, shortly after the CPI announcement in June.
- Long-term bond rates fall and rebalance to Dow, S&P, apparently reflecting the market’s no recession with continued robust economic data even before June’s CPI announcement
- After the June CPI, inflation continues to fall, expectations that the Fed will cut rates in September at the latest dominate, Russell surges and Nasdaq further gains.
- ASML’s earnings call and Trump trade on July 18, when Nasdaq Composite hits -2.77%
- There is an excuse for special earnings today, but Google earnings is okay. The actual cause is excessive shelf life. There will be no recession, and expectations that the Fed will end QT soon are growing, long-term bond rates will rise, and short-term bond rates will fall on the expectation that interest rates will also be cut.
- 2-year/ 10-year Yield Curve reversal today at its lowest level since Oct. 30, with a stiffening to -14.4 basis points.
- Looking at the Nasdaq rebalancing, it is difficult for the record rise to occur, so I have profit-taking from the open door that has risen significantly, reduced some of its leverage, and continued to increase and maintain the proportion of cash.
- Even if Goldilocks and interest rate cuts are reflected, the direction is long anyway.
- Whenever there is a big drop recently, we are responding to increasing TQ and SOXL again.
- Sorry for the late long ride, but since I’ve been long since May last year and the market has been long, I still have a long way to go to Market Correction level despite this drop.
- As a split buying scenario, I presented four things: (1) Big Tech and Semiconductor Earnings (2) Trump Confident or Promising Democratic Candidates (3) FOMC (4) Market Collection Start, and I’m responding the same way
- Nasdaq’s latest high is 18671; correction starts at 16803
- All of them were given in real-time in the group chat room dedicated to Future Walker Nepcon and Nepcon subscribers, so you can check them out ^.^