JAMESKAT Summarized Recent Tesla Feeds.

1. FSD is not creating new demand in the U.S. and Canada despite the increase in FSD performance. As a result, prices have to drop dramatically or perform much better than they are now. As seen in the V12, performance increased significantly in the early days, but performance fell in later versions.
2. China is the only market where Tesla is not constrained by demand at its current price. The Chinese market will overcome right after Juniper ramp-up. Tesla’s demand in China is totally fine.
3. It’s true that Elon’s political moves aren’t good for Tesla. It’s currently losing favor with Democrats in the U.S. and winning favor with Republicans, which is leading to a drop in demand. This is because Democrats are much more inclined to consider EVs than Republicans. (insideevs.com/news/749741/te …))
4. Sales have dropped despite significant improvements in the release of the Model 3 and CT, and a sharp drop in prices. Changes in brand sentiment among Tesla’s core consumer base cannot be ignored. However, Tesla’s stock will never go back above the $100 mark. Because robots and robotaxi are coming up.
5. The recent increase in delivery periods for Model S and Model X is believed to be due to the creation of new vehicles in this production line.
6. Very little demand for LR in China. Most are RWD.
7. HW3 has no hope. Will need to upgrade to HW4 or HW5 in the future
8. Q1 FY25 Deliveries could be very low. However, margins are very likely to increase compared to the previous quarter. Tesla is not interested in S3XY demand at all at the moment. Because they think this demand will all be filled in Q2. (Agree)
9. European FSD rollout may be less attractive. Because European FSD will not be as good as North American FSD.
10. Everywhere but China, overall demand has declined steadily for the second year in a row. Not all because of Elon, but partly because of Elon. However, the new Model Y will help, and the new vehicles will help, too
11. Two hypotheses about S/X price increase. 1) S/X sales have decreased since CT was released. Consumers want the latest/best technology, and S/X did this before, but now CT is taking over. 2) S/X’s production line does not have that high utilization rate considering current sales. The production line may be considering launching a new car. Think Big SUV is suitable.
12. Tesla’s previous refreshes didn’t improve demand, even though they were all great. Juniper is also a great and big improvement, but it’s hard to completely ignore these past examples. Tesla’s biggest hope of increasing volume in 2025 is to roll out a much cheaper product that can penetrate new vehicle segments.
13. The drop in energy margins is concerning and something to watch out for. Tesla lowered the price of the Megapac a year ago, and that’s now starting to reflect. Energy margins have already been slightly lower in the fourth quarter, and there’s a possibility that they’ll be lower going forward. Shanghai’s new Megapac is expected to have lower ASP, as the Chinese market is very competitive.