It’s the highest growth rate in 6 months… There’s something strange about it.

🚨 It’s the highest growth rate in 6 months… There’s something strange about it.

The U.S. service industry suddenly jumped to 52.0, smashing all Bloomberg expectations.

However, if you listen to the real reason for this boom that companies said, it gives you a chill in your spine.
“I’m buying in advance because of tariffs” – ISM chairman’s shock remarks

Companies are panic buying before it gets more expensive. The purchase price index is 69.2, the second highest since the end of 2022.

💥 The bigger problem is this:

The service sector is booming, but the employment index is 46.5 (three straight months of contraction)
237,000 jobless claims (highest since June)
1494 corporate recruitment plans (lowest since the 2009 financial crisis)

📈 This is a typical sign of stagflation.

As prices go up, jobs are disappearing, and consumption is decreasing. Consumers are already drastically reducing their plans for eating out, entertainment, and vacation. This is not just my opinion, but a common outlook in the performance of companies.

🏦 After all, the Fed is now in the worst dilemma in its history:

What if interest rates fall? → tariff inflation re-accelerates
What if interest rates don’t fall? → Employment and consumption plunge further

☠️ Now the number of U.S. unemployed (7.24 million) has exceeded the number of job openings (7.18 million). For the first time since April 2021.

The market is still betting on a 25 basis point rate cut, but long-term interest rates are already going up. The Fed says the benchmark rate is going to go down, but the market rate is going up the other way around. The bond market knows first.

📌 Conclusion: The growth shown by current U.S. indicators is not growth. It is panic.

It’s bringing up growth in advance to respond to tariffs. The job market is also not because AI leads to productivity improvement and eliminates jobs, but because companies are grasping and responding that demand itself is freezing. This means that both companies and consumers are moving to defensive mode.