🤔 It’s near fomc, so everyone’s looking around
I expected that the stock market would be adjusted sharply
It’s more resilient than I thought and it’s good
When Fed Chair Powell reviews the market this week
If there’s no big problem, I think we can look forward to Dow Nasdaq’s upward trend again
Global Financial Market Trends 03/19
3/19 Trends in Global Financial Market
Kim Seok-hwan, Digital Research Team, Mirae Asset Securities
◆ the U.S. stock market
- – DOW: 38,790.43p (+75.66p, +0.20%)
- – S&P500: 5,149.42p (+32.33p, +0.63%)
- – NASDAQ: 16,103.45p (+130.28p, +0.82%)
- Russell 2000: 2,024.74p (-14.59p, -0.72%)
◆ Korea-related
- MSCI Korea Index ETF: $65.76 (+0.17, +0.26%)
- MSCI Emerging Index ETF: $40.84 (+0.07, +0.17%)
- – Eurex kospi 200: 362.45p (-0.50p, -0.14%)
- NDF exchange rate (1 month): KRW 1,334.51 / KRW 0 down from the previous day is expected to start
- Philadelphia Semiconductors: 4,757.60 (-0.10, 0.00%)
◆ a foreign exchange market
- Dollar Index: 103.567 (+0.135, +0.13%)
- EUR/USD: 1.0873 (+0.0001, +0.01%)
- Dollar/yen: 149.14 (-0.01, +0.01%)
- Pounds/Dollar: 1.2731 (+0.0002, +0.02%)
◆ the U.S. Treasury market
- 2-year: 4.7319% (+0.4bp)
- 5-year: 4.3416% (+1.6bp)
- 10-year: 4.324% (+1.8bp)
- 30-year: 4.4483% (+1.9bp)
- 10Y-2Y: -40.77 bp (1.36 bp inversion reduction)
(Gift of Government Bonds) - – 2YR T-Notes: 10203 1/4 (-001 , -0.03%)
- – 5YR T-Notes: 10613 1/2 (-004 1/2, -0.13%)
- – 10YR T-Notes: 10926 (-008 1/2, -0.24%)
- – US T-Bonds: 11806 (-017 , -0.45%)
- – Ultra US T-Bonds: 12602 (-024 , -0.59%)
◆ Commodity Market ($, sweet grain, copper in cents)
- – WTI: 82.72 (+1.68, +2.07%)
- Brent crude: 86.89 (+1.65, +1.93%)
- Gold: 2,185.90 (+2.80, +0.13%)
- Silver: 25.27 (-0.12, -0.46%)
- Zinc (LME, 3M): 2,532.00 (-29.00, -1.13%)
- Copper: 413.00 (+0.55, +0.13%)
- Corn: 436.00 (-0.75, -0.17%)
- Wheat: 542.75 (+14.25, +2.70%)
- Soybean: 1,187.75 (-10.50, -0.88%)
*The above data is a summary of the data listed on Mirae Asset Securities’ website on March 19, 2024.
U.S. Stock Exchange #Korean Stock Exchange Outlook
3/19 U.S. stocks rise on expectations to expand AI ecosystem
Kim Seok-hwan, Digital Research Team, Mirae Asset Securities
# Key Takeaways
- Communication services up 3% on news of Apple-Alphabet business cooperation
- Nvidia Opens GTC 2024… Keynote Address After CEO Jensen Huang’s Chapter Closes
- Oil prices, natural gas, copper continue to rise
Variables
U.S. stocks rose on the news that Apple’s iPhone will feature Google’s generative AI, Gemini, and Alphabet’s stock price rose more than 4%. As a result, the communication service sector rose as much as 3%, driving the index’s rise. Tesla closed higher with a backlash due to higher Model Y prices and excessive fall, while Nvidia closed higher with expectations for GTC 2024. The price of real assets such as oil prices and copper rose as China’s real economic indicators came out solid. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rose on concerns about the Fed’s hawkish return ahead of the FOMC results. In particular, copper prices hit a record high in November. (Dow +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.8%, S&P 500 +0.6%, Russell 2000 -0.6%)
Featured events
Apple (+0.6 percent) is in talks to install Gemini, Google’s (+4.4 percent) generative AI, on its iPhone. In particular, communication services rose 3 percent on the back of Google’s strong performance, the highest among the S&P 500 sectors.
Tesla Inc TSLA.O (+6.3%) posted its biggest daily gain in a month after the company said it plans to raise the price of its Model Y by $1,000 starting in April. Nvidia Corp. (+0.7%) will host its annual developer conference, GTC2024. CEO Jensen Huang is expected to share information on new products (B100 Blackwell) and the overall AI ecosystem in his keynote speech. PepsiCo (+4.0%) closed bullishly after Morgan Stanley upgraded its investment opinion to overweight from Equal-Weight. In contrast, super microcomputers (-6.4%) in the S&P 500 index were bearish on profit-taking. Logitech (-6.9%) fell on news that its chief financial officer had resigned. Uber (-0.5%) was bearish on news that it had agreed to a class action worth $180 million brought by Australian drivers. Fisker (-15%), which is facing the recent bankruptcy crisis, closed sharply lower after the company said it planned to suspend production for the next six weeks.
bond, foreign exchange and commodity trends
International oil prices have hit a year-round high on expectations of increased demand for crude oil as China’s real economic data came in better than expected. WTI is $82 a barrel and Brent crude is $87 a barrel. Russia’s Urals crude oil, which is subject to a cap on oil prices ($60 a barrel) by the West, also topped $77 a barrel, the highest level since October last year. Not only oil prices but also natural gas prices in the United States and Europe are strong. In the U.S., temperatures are expected to fall by next week, Texas’ Freeport LNG terminal construction, and major natural gas producers’ voluntary production cuts are due to the impact of the four consecutive trading days in Europe. This is due to concerns that supply contraction could continue until April due to Norway’s suspension of power outages and maintenance, and a decline in U.S. LNG exports. Copper prices also topped $4.1 per pound, the highest level since April 2023.
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds hit 4.33 percent, the highest level since November 30 last year. This is because strong energy prices, including rising oil prices, will increase uncertainty in future price channels, and Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have lowered the number of Fed rate cuts this year from the previous one. As a result, the dollar rose for three consecutive trading days, approaching the 103.5 level.
S. Korea Stock Exchange Outlook
The MSCI Korea Index ETF rose 0.3% and the MSCI Emerging Index ETF rose 0.2%. NDF dollar/won exchange rate one-month is expected to start at 1,334 won. Eurex KOSPI200 futures are down 0.1%. KOSPI is expected to start at a flat level. Note the results of the BOJ meeting due at noon today.