✅ Is ‘This’ Normal, a Recession Sign?It’s past the good days of growth stocks
- Short- and Long-Term Interest Rate Differences Normalized and Concerns Over Recession
- U.S. 10-year and 2-year Treasury yield differentials normalized to 1 basis point (0.01 percentage point) in 2 years
- Recovery of normal conditions with long-term rates above short-term rates for the first time since July 2022
- Statistics exist that 10 out of 11 recessions have historically occurred after normalizing the interest rate gap
- Experts predict current recession probability above 50%, underscores need for caution
- anticipated change in investment strategy
1) Investment sentiment in technology and growth stocks is likely to shrink in the event of an economic downturn
- Companies Relying on Future Growth Engines Using Leverage Expects to Fall in Value
2) Forecast to Increase Interest in Value and Dividend Shares With Stable Cash Generating Power - For Dividend Shares, Expect Dividend Yields to Support Downside Stock Prices
3) The attractiveness of bond investments, especially long-term bond investments, is expected to rise more than stocks - bond demand growth forecast due to preference for safe assets during economic downturn
- the basis for an optimistic outlook
- Major listed companies, led by U.S. big tech companies, continue to improve their earnings
- Companies affiliated with the S&P 500 recorded a 78% EPS surprise ratio in the second quarter of 2024
- In the case of the domestic stock market, there is downward support due to the current undervaluation
- The KOSPI’s 12-month-ahead EPS rise is likely to remain in the second half of the year
- Future Market Outlook and Precautions
- The KOSPI’s EPS uptrend is likely to continue in the second half of 2024
- However, there is a possibility of increasing market volatility depending on whether the economy is in recession
- Investors Need To Pay Attention To Economic Indicators And Corporate Performance After Normalization Of Short- and Long-Term Interest Rate Differences
- Emphasis on the importance of building a balanced portfolio for different asset groups
✔ If it’s not a low bun, it’s definitely dispersed! Whether it’s time or cash!
✔ “I can hold on!” But I don’t know when I’ll need a lump sum
✔ Always be humble! Don’t be in a hurry… (What you’re saying to me!)
(Source: Maeil Business | Naver News) naver.me/GHvVSlxO