Is this how the trade war between Trump and Xi Jinping in China goes?

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I wrote it with a lot of excitement. Is this how the trade war between Trump and Xi Jinping in China goes?

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1/ This is a battle for China to win
Rare earth export permit system → global supply chain leash
U.S. regulations → Official launch of China’s counteroffensive

2/ Let’s look at the proportion of rare earth elements
61% mining
Refining and processing 91%
85% lithium refined
90% battery
= practically everything in China

3/ Why Trump is angry
Rare earths = High-tech industry essential elements
Semiconductor → lanthanum, yttrium, and europium
Battery → Lithium, Cobalt, Nickel
Robot → neodymium·disprosium
Smash the industrial base if it’s disconnected

4/ Weaponization that the WTO couldn’t stop
2010 Restrictions on Exports to Japan → Losing WTO Complaint
Even so, right now, “The Permit System”
China: Strategy Priorities Over International Norms

5/ Status of U.S. Treasuries
China used to be the largest creditor
1st place in 2008~18 → 3rd place now
No. 1 Japan $1.13 trillion
No. 2 U.K. $858 billion
Third place in China is $730 billion
Selling bonds and moving to gold

6/ Changes in China’s gold reserves
700 tons in 2008
15 years and 1,658 tons
25 years and 2,278 tons
= a steady gold store

7/ U.S. gold reserves
8,133 tons (1st in the world)
World’s central bank holds 25% of gold alone
Dollar confidence is still strong

8/ Trump negotiation pattern (real case)
Pharmaceutical companies: Declare 100% tariffs → Full exemption
China: Declares Tariffs 145% → Agreed to 30%
Current China: Declares 100% Tariffs Again →?
(Eventually more likely to go to the negotiating table)

9/ November 3, 2026
U.S. Midterm Elections
For Trump’s return to power
I’m not going to smash the stock like I am now

10/ Rare earths are different from petroleum
Oil exists as an alternative oil producer
Rare Earths Are Exclusive to China → Non-fungible

11/ Rare earth structure in China
Control of state-owned enterprises for both mining and refining
SOE Exclusive, including China Northern Rare Earth
= The will of the Chinese government is the market

12/ U.S. countermeasures
Start equity investment to reduce dependence on rare earths
Direct injection of Pentagon funds to Australian and Canadian companies
MP Materials = Case in point

13/ EU and South Korea are also victims
Electric vehicles, batteries, and semiconductors all depend on China
U.S.-China fight → direct hit on allied industries

14/ The Big Picture of China
Reducing Treasury Bonds and Increasing Gold
= Ready to challenge for dollar hegemony
“Should we change the era of key currency?” Signal

15/ What if dollar hegemony falters?
Raw materials → Trading based on gold
Oil and rare earth trade is also the yuan instead of the dollar?
a fatal blow to the U.S. economy

16/ The United States is
Designate semiconductors as security assets
Trying to protect dollar hegemony

TSMC (Taiwan), Samsung Electronics (Korea), Intel (US)
Every country’s semiconductor companies
Why we set up a factory in the U.S. = Because of the security frame

17/ Linkage with Russia
Russia also steps up gold settlement after sanctions
China + Russia → Building gold and yuan blocs
U.S. Position: Worst-case scenario

18/ U.S. counterattack card
Semiconductor Equipment Regulations Ban AI Chip Exports
Preventing China’s Semiconductor Rollout
= Rare Earth vs Semiconductor Reaction

19/ Military rare earth core
Stealth fighter, satellite communications, laser weapons required
If China stops it, the U.S. weapons system will be directly hit

20/ Investment Points
Rare earth mining and refining companies → Beneficiary
Gold → Long-term bullish assets
Dollar → Signs of faltering confidence

21/ Trump doesn’t break the market
Tariffs → Show, Negotiation → Deal
S&P 500 long-term upward tendency = Proof of it

22/ Advantages of China
Monopoly of raw materials despite economic slowdown
Electric Vehicle Boom = Lithium/Cobalt Demand Explodes
Price ↑ → Keep profit even if supply is reduced

23/ America’s Advantage
Dollar hegemony + alliance network
gold reserves are overwhelming
The perception of “global finance = American” remains

conclusion
China: Rare Earth + Gold Weaponization
US: Dollar + Semiconductor + Equity Investment
Short term = China has the upper hand
Long-term = dollar hegemony is key