IonQ, Q1 Earnings Deep Analysis (feat. 5 Key Points to Watch!)

$IonQ

■ IonQ, Q1 Earnings Deep Analysis (feat. 5 Key Points to Watch!)

❶ strong performance and guidance

(1) Q1 Revenue 64.7M: 30% Above Consensus
    ▶ 4th consecutive quarter of record sales updates

(2) Increase annual sales guidance to 260-270M
    ▶ Up from the previous 225-245M

(3) Cash and investment assets 3.1B (approximately KRW 4.3 trillion)
  ▶ Expand investment in R&D and secure the highest level of cash liquidity in facility investment

❷ Explosive increase in RPO (remaining performance obligation)

(1) As of Q1, RPO jumped 554% YoY to 470M

(2) A Trailer Of Explosive Growth As Proof Of A Very Solid Stack Of Defined Contract Volume To Turn Into Future Revenue

❸ 6th Generation 256 QB Chip-Based Systems Sold

(1) On April 9, IonQ sold its 256Q system to Horizon Quantum Computing, meaning it went beyond simple research cooperation to deploy the system in the real world

(2) The earnings reiterated that it sold 256Q systems to Cambridge University and included an IP partnership across quantum networks, sensing and security.

(3) During the earnings call, management said the demonstration of the 256 qubit system is aimed at the end of 2026, and the completion of the full delivery is targeted at the end of 2027

❹ Highlights on Space & Defense

(1) DARPA’s selection of HARQ program (announced on April 14)

• Selected for the HARQ Program of the DARPA under the U.S. Department of Defense
• This is recognized for its ” heterogeneous architecture” and “fast quantum interconnect” technology, which connects ion trap methods and other quantum architectures (superconducting, photon)

(2) Space Development Agency (SDA) HALO Program Contract (announced on April 7)

• It has won a $39.3 million contract from SDA and develops next-generation tactical space communications technology, a significant milestone in building quantum systems that can also operate in space environments

(3) Missile Defense Agency (MDA) selected SHILED IDIQ company (announced on February 23rd)

• Ensure that you are able to do your own challenges to deliver innovative quantum computing and security capabilities quickly in the future

(4) Demonstration of photon interconnects between quantum computers (announced on April 14)

• In a joint project with the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), two independent commercial quantum computers were successfully connected with photons to implement quantum entanglement states
• World’s first commercial demonstration of the world’s first decentralized quantum computing feasibility

(5) GDIT Partnership Announced (1Q Earnings Formulated)

• Strengthen strategic cooperation with GDIT, a large IT services company
• The two companies will explore opportunities for government and defense customers to jointly develop and distribute quantum solutions that can be used immediately in real-world operational sites and mission environments

❺ The acquisition of Skywater is a given

(1) The acquisition of SkyWater is still pending regulatory approval and is not yet affiliated with IonQ. IonQ had entered into a separate commercial agreement with SkyWater upon the announcement of the acquisition

(2) IonQ has already ordered tape-out for 256Q system to SkyWater plant ($12M contract amount)

(3) IonQ’s sixth-generation 256Q system is a chip-based ion trap that has already been left to SkyWater to manufacture “because it’s a company I’m going to buy anyway.”

(4) The reason why Adjusted EBITDA separately indicated commercial contract costs in this earnings release is that SkyWater will become an IonQ subsidiary upon completion of the acquisition, which will be offset by internal transactions

(5) From the management’s point of view, the disclosure was made separately to mean, “This $12M is a temporary and structural cost, so please do not regard it as a real operating loss.”

■ We looked at five key points that should be noted in this earnings, especially in this earnings, there were a lot of talks about 256Q, and it seems that a chip-based ion trap QPU has already been created on Skywater, and we were able to confirm that the development process is carried out according to the roadmap.

■ The stock price is down about 7% before the close.
I can’t find it until I find the cause of the 7% drop, but maybe a certain force drops it before the opening of the main hall.