In-depth analysis and forecast of Tesla’s performance

🖋 In-depth analysis and forecast of Tesla’s performance

The disclosure of Tesla’s fourth-quarter earnings shocked many investors. The shock of the fires, especially the notion that Tesla is still a car that can be sold as soon as it is made, is especially great.

But the era of Tesla’s avowed 50% annual growth over the years will be hard to see for some time now. Tesla is in the dud right now.

The global economy and EV environment are deteriorating to the extreme, the overwhelming supply advantage is losing its luster, and consumers’ faith is fading. Is that all? Regulatory problems such as intensifying competition and cutting subsidies for EVs are also serious.

But Tesla looks set to bounce back soon, as the fires are now pushing the area where they can no longer back down. The question is whether the short-term rebound will really lead to a new trend in the future for stock prices.

The environment and prospects facing Tesla are very unfortunate after deeply analyzing Tesla’s fourth-quarter performance. It seems like the important situation is whether we can get out of the recession quickly and regain growth in electric vehicles. In particular, the Cybertruck and Highland Vehicle Series seem to have to be heavily positioned in sales. Although changes in AI robots are increasingly visible, it seems that it will still take a long time to surge in sales and net profit. We have entered an endlessly awaited season.

Today, the New York Stock Exchange is breathing heavily waiting for the results of Big Tech earnings and FOMC meetings, the two biggest catalysts that will determine the market. The three major indexes closed mixed and mixed, and now Marso and Google’s Alphabet, the No. 1 companies in market capitalization, have announced earnings.

Both companies reported solid earnings as expected, but the question is whether they will be able to support the valuation of the Magnificent 7, which has already risen to the top without a more surprising surprise.

Now, with a neighborhood dog knowing Microsoft is the leader in generative AI, can we see a growth surprise to further boost the valuation of the stock, which is up 10% in one month and 23% in three months?

Unlike Nvidia’s chip demand, which requires a steep and competitive adoption of generative AI on the corporate side, these companies are in a position to introduce generative AI to end-users. Naturally, it can take time.

The Fed’s monetary policy meeting, which will be announced tomorrow, is also not easy. Markets have already reflected six to seven rate cuts in prices this year, but current economic data shows that a real rate cut is not possible until at least the second half of June.

Now the market is waiting for the outcome of the Fed’s policy meeting, which should ease market expectations with big tech’s earnings and hawkish stances showing full valuation.

The moon is said to lean in when the moon is cold. As the slump in M7 has already begun in Apple and Tesla, the time has come to wait and see the market with the possibility of a full-back or adjustment of Big Tech. 📈 Core Issues and Asset Market Trends

✔ ️ Key Issues:

1. Big Tech Earnings: Microsoft (MSFT), the leader of Generative AI whose corporate value exceeded 3 trillion dollars for the first time in history last week. Google’s parent company, Alphabet (GOOGL), which started innovation of Generative AI by announcing Jeminai. AMD (AMD), a leading chipmaker, reports on earnings.
2. EV Slack: China’s BYDDF, which overtook Tesla to become the world’s biggest EV seller, reported weaker-than-expected earnings. BYDDF posted full-year profit growth of 86% along with earnings below market estimates, plunging from 446% previously.
3. FOMC: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regular meeting begins in the first half of this year amid waning expectations for a rate cut by the Fed. According to CME FedWatch, the likelihood of a rate cut in March was reduced to 46.6%.

✔️ Asset Market Trends:

The three major indexes started slightly lower as the New York Stock Exchange awaited earnings from big tech companies as a key catalyst to determine the market’s rally. (Dow -0.14%, S&P 500 -0.12%, Nasdaq -0.08%)

Treasury yields edged lower as they waited for the Fed’s monetary policy meeting, which is estimated to reset the path to market interest rate cut expectations this year. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.062%. The dollar remained firm waiting for the FOMC decision without much movement.

International oil prices weakened on concerns about China’s economy amid deepening geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Crud oil fell 0.3% to $76 a barrel. Brent crude fell 0.58% to $82 a barrel. Gold jumped 1.38%, boosted by stronger demand for safeguards.

🔰 Today’s Features and Focus Companies

General Motors (GM): Reported EPS of $1.24 and beat LSEG forecasts of $1.16. Revenue was $42.98 billion, above LSEG forecasts of $38.67 billion. Shares jumped 6% before the opening bell, raising their full-year forecast on top of strong demand.