FSD Engineer Today Space Yoak
1) So far, the equipment is in the era of HBMs
Until now, the industry for equipment has been divided into extremes, depending on whether it is related to AI or not. Korea-U.S. semiconductor ARM is doing well, but semiconductor equipment stocks that are not related to HBM are still undergoing tightening operations. As a result of talking with people from various equipment companies such as W and S, the equipment made in the warehouse is still in stock, and one Samsung vendor expects to receive orders from customers from the third quarter. In conclusion, there are many semiconductor stocks that benefit from the recovery of utilization rates, but in fact, semiconductor equipment stocks are in a difficult time unless they are HBMs.
2) ASML performance concerns are not due to high business conditions, but as a result of reducing investment last year
As you know well, Samsung, Hynix, and Micron all reduced their investment capex last year as we carried out semiconductor production cuts. In particular, last year, we selectively invested only HBM-related key equipment. It is true that interest in EUV process investment has waned. It is because of the deteriorating performance of domestic ALD equipment stocks related to EUV. However, domestic equipment companies took about three months to deliver, so these parts appeared in their performance in advance, but in case of ASML, it needs about a year to deliver. It seems that the impact of reducing orders last year is now seen.
3) Conclusion
Therefore, semiconductors are currently operating rate. It can be said that the business has entered the late spring in the recovery stage. A lot of AI-related equipment stocks and Nvidia are also missing, but if they are missing due to concerns over business conditions, it seems like an opportunity.
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