1) Dollar-won rises despite U.S. shutdown issue
Last night, the dollar-won exchange rate (REGN) closed near 1403 won, up about 3 won from the previous day, despite a modest weakening of the dollar. The won is relatively weak due to uncertainties related to investment negotiations in the U.S. and demand for settlement. Baek Seok-hyun, an economist at Shinhan Bank, pointed out that although the leaders of South Korea and the U.S. are expected to seek an agreement in the wake of APEC in late October, it is not easy to include a safety net of guarantees and loans or currency swaps between central banks that South Korea wants. “It is difficult to reach an agreement without significantly easing the burden on the foreign exchange market in any way.”

2) OPEC+ to discuss early push to expand oil production
OPEC+ will discuss ways to increase oil production by about 500,000 barrels per day over three months to restore market share. This is a significant increase in production from the 137,000 barrel per day announced earlier this month, and Brent crude oil fell 1.7% during the day, below $67 per barrel after the news broke. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the global crude oil market could face the biggest oversupply ever next year

3) U.S. consumer confidence index hits 5-month low
The U.S. consumer confidence index retreated to its lowest level in five months on concerns about the labor market and the overall economic downturn. The Conference Board consumer confidence index fell 3.6 points month-on-month to 94.2 in September, below market expectations. In the conference board report, the share of consumers who said “there are many jobs” fell to its lowest level since February 2021, and the highest share in more than four years that said “it is hard to find jobs.” The gap between the two responses, which economists look at as a key indicator of the job market, has narrowed since early 2021

4) Collins, ‘A further cut within the year is appropriate’
Boston Fed President Susan Collins said further cuts within the year may be appropriate considering the slowing job market, but at the same time, she should be wary of the possibility of prolonged inflation. “There is a risk that the unemployment rate will rise more clearly as labor demand falls short of supply,” she said. “The upward risk of inflation, which was feared a few months ago, is now limited as there is less room for inflationary pressure in the labor market.” Chicago Fed President Ostan Goolsbee is concerned that the recent imposition of tariffs may once again allow companies in his jurisdiction to pause their decision-making and watch how tariffs are determined

5) China suspends new purchases of BHP iron ore in Australia
China’s state-owned iron ore purchaser China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) has asked Australia’s BHP Group to temporarily suspend new purchases. The widening price dispute between the two countries has put BHP in danger of clogging up major clients. As a result, new contracts including those already shipped from Australia have become impossible, and only some arriving shipments in the Chinese currency can be traded. The move came after negotiations between the two sides ended without success since late last week. With the news, iron ore futures in Singapore rose 1.8 percent at one point, while BHP shares plunged up to 4.8 percent in London