1) Dollar-won linked to yen amid ‘Takaichi trade’
The dollar-won NDF was traded around 1,424 won at one point last night. Compared to just before the holiday, it is up about 20 won, and the won has been linked to the weak yen and the strong dollar. As the correlation between the won and the yen has been very high in recent years, we cannot rule out the possibility that the yen’s move will encourage the won to weaken. With the election of Takaichi Sanae as the president of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, interest rates on Japanese government bonds rose and the yen’s value fell due to the prospect of economic stimulus measures

2) Yen plunges. BOJ hikes in October?
Takaiichi, who is likely to be the next prime minister of Japan, is facing an unexpected surprise: the yen’s plunge. The dollar-yen exchange rate soared this week, rising nearly 4 percent, approaching the key psychological level of 155, as the Bank of Japan claims that the bank’s October interest rate hike has gone beyond his economic stimulus stance. The weak yen could fuel the possibility of the BOK’s October rate hike, as it raises inflationary pressure by raising import costs. Mizuho Bank pointed out, “The weak yen has raised the possibility of a rate hike in October. The public is very dissatisfied with the rise in import prices due to the cheap yen.”

3) Israel-Hamas ceasefire in effect
After Israel and Hamas agreed to release all prisoners of war, the agreement began to be implemented in Gaza Strip. Hamas has decided to return all the hostages held in Gaza Strip. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has long strived to completely destroy Hamas, hailed it as a national and moral victory for Israel. The Hamas negotiator also declared an end-of-war agreement, and Trump said he would fly to Israel to take care of the release of the hostages.

4) The price of silver is also at an all-time high
Spot silver prices soared more than 4% at one point on Thursday, hitting a new all-time high of $51.23 an ounce. Silver has surged more than 70% this year, eclipsing a gold rally. It is part of a phenomenon in which major currencies such as the dollar are being shunned as part of a “debasing trade” amid U.S. fiscal concerns, overheated stock markets and threat of Fed independence. Silver is used not only as an investment asset but also for industrial use, such as solar panels and wind turbines, with the two sectors accounting for more than half of silver sales. Expecting a supply shortage where demand exceeds supply this year, too

5) Asia-Pacific surprise interest rate decision
Three central banks in the Asia-Pacific region surprised markets with unexpected interest rate decisions. All of which signaled a warning of growth in the coming months, increasing uncertainty over the direction of policy. New Zealand made a big cut of 50 basis points, as economic activity and business sentiment deteriorated more than expected. Thailand kept its key interest rate unchanged, defying market consensus that expected a cut. The Philippine central bank slashed its policy rate by 25 basis points, contrary to freezing expectations, as corruption scandals surrounding government contracts undermine sentiment. The trend highlights economic and market uncertainty exacerbated by Trump’s trade and international policies
(자료: Bloomberg News)