“Diplomat,” a U.S. foreign affairs and security magazine, released today, gave a review of the results of the April 10 general elections in Korea. It clearly describes the political situation in Korea. It translates the full text.

• The article was written by Mitch Shin, a correspondent on the Korean Peninsula for The Diplomat and a researcher at the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy. ———

Korea officially opens lame-duck era in Yoon Suk Yeol

In South Korea, President Yoon’s Lame Duck Era Officially Begins

Of the 300 seats in the National Assembly, 175 were taken by the opposition Democratic Party and 108 were taken by the People’s Power of the ruling party. The composition includes the Cho Kuk Innovation Party (12 seats), the New Reform Party (3 seats), the New Future Party (1 seat) and the Progressive Party (1 seat).

192 seats and two-thirds of the National Assembly members became opposition members.

In the 2020 general election, the Democratic Party won a landslide victory with 180 seats. This time, the Democratic Party once again secured the majority of seats in the National Assembly, reflecting public anger and widespread anti-yoon sentiment.

Among the various reasons, there are several main factors that can explain why the ruling party’s ‘people’s power’ did not win the election. Most of the reasons have to do with the Yoon Suk Yeol himself.

• a backlash against the presidential veto

Yoon Suk Yeol, a former attorney general and legal expert, has shown no hesitation in vetoing the bill passed in the Democratic-controlled National Assembly over the past two years.

Yoon Suk Yeol has vetoed the president nine times, a record for any previous president. The former Moon Jae In president never exercised that right, as he believed that the president should respect the National Assembly’s decisions as the separation of powers was established. Moon also worked with the National Assembly, which is controlled by his own party, the Democratic Party.

The public strongly criticized the rejection of a special investigation bill targeting allegations of manipulation by the wife of the Yoon Suk Yeol among the bills passed by the Democratic Party and the opposition party. Not a single president vetoed a special investigation bill involving the president’s family members or close aides.

It also created a sense that Yoon’s wife is above the law, as he has himself stated that there is no reason to refuse the special counsel unless he commits a crime. No summons or search has been made in her case, and no charges have been filed. However, Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, has been indicted on various charges related to bribery after extensive investigation and prosecution over the past three years. Lee’s wife has also been charged with violating the Public Official Election Act.

In this context, public anger snowballed when the Yoon Suk Yeol rejected a special investigation law targeting his wife, revealing a double standard of investigating family members and considering opponents to be political opponents. He refused to investigate his wife, which is unacceptable to many people.

Inflation and R&D budget cuts

One of the main reasons for the defeat of the National Power Party in this election is the failure of the Yoon administration to stabilize prices.
According to data released by Statistics Korea in March, consumer prices of fruit rose 40.6 percent in February. Consumer prices of apples rose 71.0 percent and pear prices rose 61.1 percent.

“I just came back home after seeing incredible fruit prices at my local market,” Kang Hyun-sook, a 47-year-old housewife in Seoul, told The Diplomat. “How miserable is it to hesitate to buy fruit for your children?”

The Yoon Suk Yeol’s “onion mistake” also caused public anger by revealing its ignorance about consumer prices. Yoon said it was “reasonable” that a batch of green onions was priced at 875 won. However, most people could not buy green onions at that price because the market he visited was holding a sale event.

While promising to stabilize prices, the Yoon administration cut its R&D budget by 14.7 percent. It is the first time that the government cut R&D funding since 1991. Korea did not cut its R&D budget even amid the IMF crisis. The science and technology community expressed concern over the government’s decision. It could affect ongoing research projects.

To soothe scientists’ anger, Yoon Suk Yeol recently vowed to increase his R&D budget next year, only to find that his budget cuts were unnecessary and misconsidered.

Economic problems centered on high inflation have apparently led many voters to vote for the Democratic Party to punish the Yoon administration for its failures over the past two years.

Doctors Strike Striking Doctors

Another major issue is the ongoing doctors’ strike. In February, the Yoon administration said it would increase the annual quota of medical schools by 2,000. There are 40 medical schools in Korea, recruiting 3,058 medical students every year. According to the new plan, this will increase to a maximum of 5,058.

Since then, medical doctors have gone on strike to withdraw the government’s decision. The strike forced university hospitals to reschedule their operations.

In response, the government made it clear that increasing medical students was non-negotiable and threatened to revoke the doctors’ licenses for the doctors who participated in the strike. As a result, the Yoon Suk Yeol has expressed a firm commitment to recruiting medical students, which has not been done for the past 18 years.

The government expects the plan to address the shortage of doctors in rural areas. In this case, 10,000 more doctors will graduate by 2035. However, it remains to be seen whether the government will be able to stick to the plan as doctors have also shown strong opposition.

Considering the high approval rating for the government’s move to fill doctors, the ongoing battle between the government and medical doctors does not appear to have affected the election results. However, with the ruling party’s heavy defeat in the election, the DP is likely to take steps to mediate the conflict on behalf of the government. If so, the DP may seek to reduce the number of medical students currently accommodated by doctors. It is questionable, however, whether the government will accept the DP’s proposal to mediate among doctors.

improper abuse of power by the presidential bodyguard

Kang Sung-hee of the Progressive Party shook hands with Yoon and talked a few words when he met Yoon Suk Yeol at an event in January. Seconds later, he was forcibly escorted by Yoon’s bodyguards. Yoon’s bodyguards raised their arms and legs with their mouths covered.

The presidential bodyguard explained that the incident was committed in accordance with the principle of security. However, the recorded video reported by Korean media showed that Kang only had a brief conversation with Yoon.

At the graduation ceremony of the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST) in February, a graduate was also forcibly taken away from his limbs. He was shouting at President Yoon when the president was speaking at the event. Yoon’s bodyguards, who were wearing graduation robes among the graduates, immediately ran and grabbed him when the student shouted.

The incident further cemented the Yoon Suk Yeol’s image as a leader who does not like to communicate with people with other ideas. The crackdown on Kang and KAIST graduates stirred anti-yielding sentiment among citizens who value free speech.

Lee Jun-seok’s victory

Amid a wave of support for the Korean liberal party, Lee Joon-seok, who led the Yoon Suk Yeol’s last presidential campaign and the 2022 local elections, recorded a surprise election overthrow in Hwaseong, southwest of Seoul. For the past few weeks, Lee has been trailing behind the Democratic Party candidate, Gong Young-woon, and opinion polls have shown him with little chance of winning. However, Lee won the election, defeating Gong by 3.38 percentage points.

Lee thanked the voters and said he should think about why he should leave the National Power Party and run for election in another party. Lee left to form his own party after being ousted from the ruling National Power Party leadership and replaced by a Yoon aide. The new reformist party, led by Lee, won three seats in the latest elections.

It is widely believed that the ruling party’s lackluster performance is due to Yoon’s low approval rating. Lee’s surprise victory could give credence to the rumor that his party would do well even without a Yoon Suk Yeol within the party. Moderates within the party may raise their voices even further for power ahead of the next presidential election in March 2027.

What Comes Next?

According to media reports on Monday, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and his staff at Yoon Suk Yeol expressed their resignation. Yoon’s Cabinet reshuffle will take place.

Meanwhile, Han Dong-hoon, interim leader of the People’s Power Party, announced his resignation at a press conference on Sunday. His presence soon turned into a bubble.

There are also rumors that Yoon Suk Yeol may bolt from the National Power Party. However, at the time of my writing, there is no sign that Yoon will withdraw from the National Power Party.

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, will consolidate his party’s power and set the stage for his third presidential bid.

Yoon’s chief of staff said yesterday that he could cooperate with the Democratic Party of Korea and the opposition party. However, past precedents suggest that the Yoon Suk Yeol will remain a lame duck as the Democratic Party and the Yoon administration do not cooperate meaningfully.

In the future, the Democratic-controlled National Assembly is expected to pass a special investigation bill on Yoon’s wife again. However, Yoon is likely to exercise his veto power again.

Photo – Lee Jae-myung, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (center), speaks to reporters after watching the results of a general election exit poll on TV at the National Assembly building in Seoul, on April 10, 2024. / Credit: Chung Sung-Jun/Pool Photo via AP