Comment on the market (feat. VIX index)

● Comment on the market (feat. VIX index)

• This article was written before November 14th

When the short-term market is undergoing an adjustment like now, we tend to look at the VIX index in the section where there is fear.

At the time of writing, the spot S&P 500 VIX was up +11% at 22.2, while the VIX futures were up +5% at 21.4.

1. Conceptual arrangement (VIX spot vs VIX gift)

• VIX Spot (22.2)
  → “This is likely to be the level of S&P 500 volatility over the next 30 days from this moment” is the current fear/variability level
• VIX Presents (21.4)
  → Expectations for future VIX levels that “at the time of futures expiration, the VIX index is likely to be this much (21.4)”.
  (Expectations for the “VIX Index at the time” and not the “S&P500 Volatility” to be exact)

1. Meaning of the number: spot (22.2) > futures (21.4)

The section where spot is higher than futures is called backwardation.
(Referring to a situation that is at least “Spot > Present for the Month”)

Usually, in a calm chapter, there is an upward-facing contango structure such as “Spot VIX < Recent Month Gift < Original Month Gift”.

However, the fact that the spot is higher than the present means that “the fear is now ‘floating’, and I think this fear will subside to some extent over time.”

3. market sentiment readable in this situation

1) Possibility of fear spike due to short-term events/news

• Currently, there are two major issues in the market: concerns about the AI bubble and concerns about interest rates. In the end, it is a period of rest due to excessive rise, and short-term volatility has risen as the market overreacts and feels fear beyond simple adjustments. This is the highest number since the spot VIX surpassed 25 on October 17 due to U.S.-China tariff issues and hit near 29 on October 20.

2) In the medium term, ‘risk management is necessary, but not panic’

VIX 22.5 is historically not a complete crash interval (over 30 to 40), but it’s a boundary mode that’s not even a “quiet chapter (15 or below).” We need to see if today’s VIX index stabilizes around 20 without exceeding its November 8 high.

Maybe if you were doing a paid lecture at Samchumsam campus, you’d be having a busy day today, sending a bunch of call papers, no, that’s the day you should have done that.

I think the basic purpose is to speak out more when the market is in trouble, and I think that’s important to trust. However, I think it is right to not break the market view by 180 degrees, to check the risk factors in advance, and to make a field tax judgment based on data, not just conveying thoughts.

Personally, today’s market response is a situation in which an additional purchase was made in the market due to a dumping phenomenon at the market price.

The first half of November is a volatile market, and the second half is a rebound market, and I told you that if you keep the first half and put the stocks you haven’t bought in the fall well, a good atmosphere is expected early next year, and it’s still valid.