Bitcoin’s price trend is unusual. After surpassing 126,000 dollars in early October, it continued to fall, and now it has surpassed 86,000 and then recovered until recently. What changes will the market price show in the future?

Experts’ prospects are mixed. Those who have a lot to do with Bitcoin predict that the price will rise soon, far exceeding the high point next year. Some have extreme optimism that it will surpass $400,000 next year.

However, experts in an objective position predict that the price of Bitcoin will plunge soon. Pessimistically, it is expected to fall to $40,000.

So which one is correct? I believe that the prospect of an objective position is much more feasible. What will happen to financial markets if such a pessimistic outlook is realized?

In the recent downtrend, there is a high possibility that either Strategy or related financial institutions, which purchased Bitcoin on a large scale, will go bankrupt or be exposed to the risk. Then, bank runs such as recovery of investments will occur.

If this actually happens, the U.S. stock market is likely to crash. Then the principle of credit destruction will work and the financial crisis will explode.

My diagnosis is that the bubble in the US stock market is already seriously swollen. The stock market is generally considered to be strong when the stock price return (PER) is 18-20, because the average US stock price return reaches 25 and the average of the seven major stocks exceeds 35. Therefore, if something appears to act as a trigger, the bubble in the US stock market can burst at any time.

Looking back, the dollar remained strong until 2024, leading to a boom in the stock market as financial capital from other countries flowed into the United States in anticipation of foreign exchange gains. However, the inflow of international financial capital gradually decreased after 2025.

At this time, Trump made Bitcoin a strategic asset for the United States. It was reasonable because the U.S. holds 94% of all Bitcoin. As a result, Bitcoin’s market price continued to renew its high price this year.

The above surge in Bitcoin prices played a role in greatly increasing the liquidity of the U.S. currency, which further increased the bubble in the stock market.

However, Bitcoin’s price has now fallen significantly by more than 30% compared to its peak, and it is increasingly likely to crash further in the future. If that actually happens, and any financial institution, such as Strategy, goes bankrupt, it is likely that a serious financial crisis will break out in the United States.

Even if the financial crisis broke out, there were quite a few cases where the Fed, the US central bank, quickly prescribed appropriate policies without difficulty. However, this time, it will be different. This is because Bitcoin-related financial institutions do not have proper legal provisions to inject public funds. It is a serious concern.

What else will happen if the financial crisis explodes in the future and the recession becomes serious? When the financial crisis broke out in the second half of 2008, derivative financial products were used as the cause, and all kinds of criticism was poured out to financial institutions that created and invested in it. If so, wouldn’t the criticism be concentrated on virtual currencies such as Bitcoin this time? In reality, it would be even more so because virtual currency hardly plays the role of currency and is mainly used as a means of concealing criminal proceeds.