●About wind power generation

[Technology development trend of wind power generation]

1. Wind turbine facility capacity

• 23 out of 35 wind turbine manufacturers are located in APAC countries (China, India)
• Continuous improvement of utilization rate (power generation) and utilization rate (durable) by technological progress -> turbine enlargement
• LCOE Declines Due to Market Expansion -> EU Land Wind Grid-Parity Reached
• Top 3 터빈 업체 – Vestas, Siemens-Gamesa, GE Verona
• Land Wind Turbine -> 3 to 7.6 MW (Enercon E126, diameter 127 m, height 135 m)
• Offshore wind turbine -> 8-14 MW (SGRESG 14-236DD, 236 m in diameter, 250 m in hub height)

1. the expansion of a wind farm

• First -> Crotched mountain 1981 U.S. land wind farm 0.6 MW (30 KWh x 20 pieces)
• Currently -> UK 2022 Hornsea 2 offshore wind farm 1.3 GW (8 MW x 165, 1.3 million households) commercial development

[Internalization and outsourcing of global turbine companies]

• For parts such as blades, gearboxes, generators, and controllers, they are technically difficult and are core parts, so they are built on their own
• Towers and forging are irrelevant to the main performance of the turbine, such as serving as a support, and are intended to reduce fixed costs and lower unit prices through outsourced production
• Vestas: Denmark tower plant sold to China’s Titan Wind Energy in 2012 U.S. tower plant sold to CSwind in June 2021
• Towers vary in wind speed, quality, climate, etc. by region, so small amounts of various types, custom production methods
• Turbine companies plan to outsource hub and nacelle as well -> Hub is likely to outsource to bearing companies and nacelle to tower companies
• Bearing undergoes trial and error of tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands according to various climates, wind speeds, and wind qualities, and is highly related to power generation yield, resulting in high descriptive interpretation
• The hub is the part that connects the blade and bearing, and the nacelle is made by assembling the gearbox, generator, controller, etc

[Resolving the issue of project delay in wind power generation]

• Compared to solar power generation, wind power generation has a longer licensing period and a longer financing period, which is greatly affected by policy interest rates
  -> If the policy rate falls, the burden on Grid-parity decreases, which can speed up the resumption of the project. In addition, the EU recently passed a bill to shorten the licensing period
• The issue of project delay due to bottlenecks in the power system will be gradually resolved

[Competitive offshore wind power compared to land wind power]

• Wind power capacity is increasing to reduce cost per unit capacity, and as a result, natural damage and low-frequency noise caused by large-scale construction are intensifying, limiting the installation space of onshore wind power
• Offshore wind power is free from relatively few soils and land acquisition problems
• In fact, the average distance of global offshore wind farms from the coast is about 32.9 km, and there is a trend that is increasingly moving away from the coast
• The average utilization rate of offshore wind power is about 30% to 40%, with 22% for onshore wind power and 15% for solar power
• There is no significant difference compared to the 40% utilization rate of LNG power generation based on the US, which is a fossil fuel
• Theoretically, it can be up to 45% efficient, which will make it more competitive
  Offshore winds are stronger, more constant, and more abundant than terrestrial ones
• The output is proportional to the cube of wind speed. When the wind speed increases by 10%, the output increases by 33%. The sea is basically more advantageous than the land
• Furthermore, when demand for electricity is higher than usual due to weather, sea and land temperature difference Sea Breeze effect increases sea wind, which is advantageous for more power supply
• Fast LCOE decline due to turbine enlargement and only enlargement
• Currently, the biggest limitation of offshore wind power is high investment costs compared to terrestrial wind power. If this is resolved, market expansion will accelerate

[The importance of floating wind power]

• The most common monofile method is difficult when the water depth exceeds 30-35 meters
  Japan, the United States, and South Korea have few shallow depth areas, so floating offshore wind power is an alternative
• Floating does not require complete fixation of the structure, so it can be installed at a depth of more than 100m
• Countries around the North Sea and Baltic Sea have average wind speeds of 10 m/s even in shallow depths
  The average wind speed of the demonstration complex currently in operation in Korea is only 6m/s, and the utilization rate is only 22%
• Wind speed distribution in nearly 80% of the country with an annual average wind speed of 6.4 m/s or less
  In Korea, floating development is especially important
• Floating is still as expensive as $160 for LCOE. Global cumulative installation capacity is less than 1GW

[CSwind]

• Big Surprise Of KRW 130.3 Billion In Q2 Earnings Release, Significantly Exceeds Operating Profit Consensus Of KRW 40.9 Billion
• Nomura Securities raises target price for CSWind to W85,000 from W78,000
• U.S. factory yield stable, excluding AMPC estimates operating margin of over 5% -> long-term margin target of 15%
• Bladt and U.S. corporation rise sharply in 2025 consensus as they rise to the top for first time since acquisition
• Existing Consensus: Operating Profit 126.2 Billion in 2024, 261.2 Billion in 2025 -> Revenue of KRW 3.5 trillion and Operating Profit of KRW 400 Billion in 2025
• Shares Are Likely Higher Beta Following CSBearing