ARK’s 2025 Big Idea: Tesla Self-Driving Safety Outlook
“Tesla expects autonomous driving software to be safer than human drivers”
- Key Content Summary
1) As Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) mode develops, it is likely to reach safer levels than human drivers.
2) Soon Tesla is expected to need one significant intervention every 10,000 miles (about 160,000 km), which is equivalent to the distance the average human driver drives in a year.
3) Tesla is expected to achieve a safer level than the average U.S. accident rate (one accident per 700,000 miles) by the end of 2025.
In other words, it is expected to improve to the level of one intervention every 700,000 miles (1.12 million km).
4) Waymo’s robotaxi service currently has a police-reported accident rate of one per 400,000 miles (640,000 km), which is already a high level of safety, but below Tesla’s target figure.
- 목표 Future Improvement Goals (expected in 2025)
1) FSD v12.5.1 (October 2024) → 1 intervention per approximately 66,736 miles
2) FSD v13.4.5 (March 2025) → 1 intervention per 120,000 miles
3) FSD v13.7? (October 2025) → 1 intervention per 190,000 miles
4) End goal: one intervention per 700,000 miles (1.12 million km), i.e. safer than the average U.S. accident rate.
- Conclusion
1) Due to the continued development of Tesla FSD, it is likely to achieve safer levels than the average accident rate for human drivers.
2) Aim for nearly twice as high safety as Waymo Robotsaxi.
3) There is a possibility that robo-taxi services will be introduced in earnest by running remote operations until 2025.
4) H100 GPU usage increased → 100 to 70x computing performance expected. Key elements of AI learning and autonomous driving performance improvement.
5) Tesla plans to take FSD to a much safer level than human drivers by 2025.
6) Achieving the goal of one intervention per 700,000 miles (1.12 million km) is likely to secure a competitive advantage in the robo-taxi market.
7) Fast AI learning and hardware development will be important factors while setting higher targets compared to Waymo.