Tesla 4Q24 Earnings Summary

• Revenue of $25.71B (Expected $27.21B)
• Non-GAAP EPS of $0.73 (estimated $0.76)
• 16.3% gross profit margin (expected 18.96%)
• Operating profit ratio of 6.2%
• Energy Storage 3.06 B (up 113% Y/Y)
• Service 2.84B (31% Y/Y)
• Adjusted EBITDA of 4.92B (25% Y/Y)
• Cash equivalent assets 36.56B (26% increase year-on-year)
• Operating cash flow of 4.81B (10% year-on-year)

Tesla Stock Results For Full Year 24

• Total Revenue of $97.69B (up 1% Y/Y)
• ENERGY SALES $10.08B (67% Y/Y)
• Services Revenue $10.53B (27% Y/Y)
• Gross profit margin of 17.9%
• Operating profit ratio of 7.2%

EPS is $2.42, which has been falling for two years after peaking at 4.07 in 2022. Elon Musk, too, personally, is thinking it will be an inflection point in 2025. The stock has crashed since the end of 2022, which is a preview of 23 and 24 years of performance, and the current stock trend is a reflection of 25-27.

Q4 Output/Handout

• Production volume: Model 3/Y 436,718, Others 22,727 Total 459,445
• Delivery Amount: Model 3/Y 471,930, Others 23,640, Overall 495,570, Lease 26,962
• Energy storage: 11 GWh (244% Y/Y)
• Supercharger Station: 6,975 (17% Y/Y)
• SUPERCHARGER CONNECTOR: 65,495 (19% Y/Y)

full 24-year output/delivery

• Production volume: Model 3/Y 1,679,338, Others 94,105, Overall 1,773,443
• Delivery: Model 3/Y 1,704,093, Others 85,133, Overall 1,789,226
• Energy storage: 31.4 GWh (114% increase year-on-year)
• Semi plant recently completed roof and wall of main building, first production to begin at end of 25, full-scale production from early 26
• Cortex Deployment: Made with 50,000 H100s, enabled V13 FSD, and significantly improved safety and convenience. Data includes 4.2x increase, high resolution video input, 2x reduction in latency, redesigned controllers, and more.
• FSD Performance: In the fourth quarter, Tesla vehicles using FSD (supervisor) were able to perform automatic parking and driving functions in parking lots, and Autopilot users drove 5.94M miles without incident, much safer than the U.S. average of 0.7M.
• Optimus Development: Optimus is undergoing third-generation development, including hands, solid mobility and additional work training, for its scheduled 25-year “pilot production.”
• Lithium Refinery: It has started processing lithium-containing concentrates, and plans to start a 25-year plant.
• 4680 Cell Production: The production rate of 4680 cells produced by themselves has exceeded that of Cybertruck, which produces 2,500 units per week.
• FSD mileage: It’s been increasing dramatically since FSD v12, and the cumulative miles are close to 3 billion miles. It’s increased by 1 billion miles in about 3 months and will reach the 6 billion mile mark for full self-driving in June-August given the increasing slope.
• SHANGHAI MEGA FACTORY WILL START PRODUCTION IN FULL-STATE Q1 WITH FINISHED PLANT
• Supercharger V4 Charger: Supports architecture for 400-1,000V vehicles with a maximum charging speed of 500 kW for passenger cars and 1.2 MW for Semi.
• The supercharger has added a battery preheating function to allow the vehicle with the LFP battery pack to charge up to 4 times faster.

VOLUME: It expects growth with advances in autonomous driving technology and the introduction of new products, and expects energy storage deployments to grow by at least 50% in 25 years. (Energy storage will be at least 45GWh)

Product Outlook: Production plans for new product vehicles, including cheaper models, are expected to begin in the first half of 2025. These vehicles combine elements of the next generation platform with elements of the current platform to be produced on the current manufacturing line.

Cost savings, production growth: This approach can lead to cost savings, but it helps you increase production carefully while managing capital expenditures efficiently in times of uncertainty. It allows you to fully utilize your current maximum production capacity of 3 million units, and enables growth of more than 60% compared to 2024 output.

Robotaxi (Cybercap): Pursuing an innovative ‘Unboxed’ manufacturing strategy, it will begin mass production in 26 years.

• Prices per vehicle continued to fall, reaching $34,000 at 4Q24.