About the U.S. Employment Report
Recently, interest rates on government bonds have expanded, reflecting Trump’s policy, exceeding 4.7% on a 10-year basis. Meanwhile, the importance of the employment report, which will be released on the 10th (Friday), has increased. Considering the inherent volatility of the S&P 500 index in the options market, the rate of change in the upward/downward rate is 1.2%, which is expected to change the index by 1%.
This is the highest level since concerns about the results of the employment report were highlighted on Sept. 6, as the Nasdaq fell 2.43%, reflecting concerns about the economic downturn, according to the employment report released in August. It should be noted that the results of the employment report, which will be released on January 10, could have a big impact on the stock market as well as the bond market.
Meanwhile, in the recent U.S. job search report JOLTs, the number of job openings increased from 783.9 million to 80.98 million, but while the number of job seekers and job seekers decreased, the employment change in the ADP private employment report decreased from 14.6 million to 12.2 million. In addition, the employment index fell 2.8p to 45.3 in the ISM manufacturing index and 0.1p to 51.4 in the service index, indicating that the slowdown in employment continues mainly in the manufacturing industry. On top of that, the difference in the ratio of rich jobs and difficulty finding jobs among the detailed items of the conference board consumer confidence index, one of the strong leading indicators, increased 3.8p, highlighting concerns over sluggish job market.
As a result, the market forecast that the number of non-agricultural employees will decrease to 1530,000 from 227,000 announced last month. Goldman Sachs predicted that the number would increase by 125,000 and Morgan Stanley by 150,000, which is estimated to have led the increase in the retail sector. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.3%, which is higher than market expectations, and wages are expected to slow down. It should be noted that depending on the results, there is a high possibility of expanding volatility in the stock market as well as the dollar and interest rates