After hitting its low point on November 9, 2022, Bitcoin went through a period of condensing its strength by slowly repeating its rise and fall, and on October 16, 23, it began to rise in earnest with large trading volumes. Since then, the daily chart has never broken the 120-point level so far, with the 120-point and 200-point lines in a positive arrangement.

From October 23, to the present, there has been only one test of the 120 level, which was January 23, 24. Around this time, the Fear and Greed Index showed a neutral state, falling to 49. However, it has never come down to a state of fear.

As of May 1, 24, the psychological index was 54, and it has come back to neutral. There is room for it to come down further below 50. In terms of price, Bitcoin hit 59K at dawn, and it is hovering around 60K at the time of writing. Bulk transactions have not yet occurred.

It is close to the 120-point mark. The range is 58K and a power struggle between buying and selling is likely to take place soon ahead of the FOMC statement due tomorrow at 3 a.m.

I don’t know if you think you’ll see a technical rebound. I’m not sure because the first thing is that I’ve tested the 120 level once before, so it’s my second rebound, and the current prices of 60K and 58K are not that big.

If you look at the second chart figure, you can test the line again after only one technical rebound from the previous cycle’s rise, from October 21, 20 to April 21, and from the 120 level on April 25, 2021, but you can see it sliding in one direction below the 200 level. The 200 line is currently 52K, but if you break it, you don’t know how far it will fall. This is because it is a panic cell section where liquidation takes place one after another.

Even if Powell delays interest rate cuts due to H4L, the Treasury is doing MMT that Yellen was unable to do when he was Fed chairman. In fact, the correlation between interest rates and Bitcoin is not large. I won’t write more here in case the words get longer.

It is closely related to the supply-demand law and liquidity, or fiscal policy, where money is released to the market rather than interest rates, and I think we should pay attention to Treasury Secretary Yellen rather than Powell.

For your information, Brian HoonJong Paik, director of the board, organized the situation of liquidity entering Bitcoin through ETFs. It is still written that ETFs are composed of hedge funds centered on short-term arbitrage rather than long-term holders. https://www.facebook.com/hoonse/posts/10107906147913054