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Here’s today’s stock market summary.

1. The KOSPI’s slump in the last two weeks will be weak and return. Global financial markets, which were at a disadvantage, are expected to turn favorable. Bond rates and the dollar continue to stabilize downward until mid-March. From both sessions in early March, expectations for China’s economic stimulus policy re-inflow
2. The 10-year U.S. bond yield was 4.18 percent last week (high point of 4.32 percent on Feb. 22). The U.S. dollar, which was close to 105 points, was also below 104 points. Expectations for a rate cut, which had retreated to the level of the Fed’s dot plot, have revived. Expectations for a Bad Is Good phase to unfold. If bond rates and the U.S. dollar continue to stabilize, the KOSPI will highlight its relative attractiveness
3. Expectations for a further rate cut before confirming the results of the FOMC dot plot on March 20 are expected to continue to stabilize the 10-year U.S. bond. Support is expected to be tested below 4% in March and around 3.85 to 3.9%. U.S. economic indicators scheduled for this week are sluggish month-on-month and are likely to raise expectations for price stability
4. In particular, attention is paid to February employment indicators (8th). The number of non-farmers employed is down from 353,000 to 200,000. Average hourly wage slows to 4.3% from 4.5% in January. Stimulates inflation expectations. Fed Chairman Powell will report to the House and Senate on the 6th and 7th. Given that expectations for a rate cut have been normalized, the market is likely to react sensitively to non-double remarks. Even if volatility increases, it will only fluctuate in the short term, which will lead to buying opportunities in terms of short-term trading
5. China announces better-than-expected economic indicators. Expectations for economic stimulus policies may now increase again from the 4th to the 5th. In particular, China’s February import and export growth rate, which will be announced on the 7th, is expected to expand compared to December, and the CPI in February will turn around for the first time in five months. In this case, deflation concerns will be eased, and expectations for economic recovery may flow in coupled with the economic stimulus policies of both parties in early March.
6. In fact, Korea’s exports have continued to remain strong. Korea’s exports grew 4.8 percent year-on-year in February, marking the fifth month of growth. Based on the average daily export amount, the year-on-year growth rate was 12.5 percent, up from 5.2 percent in January. Exports of semiconductors, electric vehicles, ships, general machinery, home appliances, and auto parts are leading the improvement
7. Changes in the domestic and foreign macro environment and financial markets will boost the rebound in export and growth stocks, which have been suppressed so far. Export and growth stocks Expand undervalued attractiveness compared to the KOSPI. In particular, attention is paid to the semiconductor, Internet, and pharmaceutical/bio industries, where 12-month EPS has stabilized since the fourth quarter earnings season, and foreign net purchases are also being re-inflowed. Secondary batteries are also expected to be able to trade short-term due to calming performance uncertainty and inflow of foreign net purchases
8. Additional KOSPI gains in the first half of March are last minute spurt after baton touch from low PBR to export and growth. Primary upside target estimated at 2,750p
9. The trend in the second half of March is expected to be determined by the release of real indicators in February in China and the results of the FOMC in March. First of all, it is necessary to focus on responding to cyclical sales by mid-March, and then strengthen the defense through risk management, low PBR, and dividend stock trading strategies
   In addition, Korea is alienated… However, I expect it to be different.
   Let me tell you about the signs of last week’s change and the expected changes in the future.
   And I also thought about the industry strategy according to the expected changes in the process.
   Here are some of the details.
   The U.S., Japan, and Taiwan continue to hit record highs. This is the result of a strong rebound in the second half of the last week of February. In the process, U.S. bond rates and the dollar reversed.
   Despite rising U.S. bond rates and the dollar, global stock markets have risen on the back of strong profits (the U.S.), easing monetary policy expectations (Japan), and a boom in AI semiconductors (Taiwan).
   However, in the last week of February, we believe it reacted to changes in the global macro environment and financial market environment. As the earnings season wraps up, it is likely to shift from earnings to macro.
   Nevertheless, the KOSPI fell to the 2,640-point level. Low PBR stocks turned downward due to disappointment in the value-up program. Amid a rebound in bond rates and a holiday ahead, caution over U.S. PCE prices has added to weak growth stocks such as the Internet and pharmaceutical/bio. Foreign futures trading, sensitive to the fluctuations of 10-year U.S. bonds, also shifted to five trading days ahead of the holiday
   Compared to the global stock market, it is a relatively sluggish result, but it has endured well despite the fall of low PBR stocks that have led the KOSPI rebound. The KOSPI reduced its fall to a low of 2,619p (market-based).
   I think the KOSPI’s sluggish performance over the past two weeks is likely to return to the weak. We expect the global financial market and macro environment, which have been disadvantageous so far, to turn favorable. Bond rates reversed, and the dollar also declined. Bond rates and the dollar’s downward stability are expected to continue until mid-March.
   For the time being, the KOSPI may be relatively undervalued. Expectations for China’s economic stimulus policy will once again strengthen from the two meetings in early March. This means that the investment environment from G2, which was unfavorable to KOSPI, can be turned into a favorable one. If the wind direction changes, the reversal of the KOSPI is expected to be visible.
   Last week, the 10-year U.S. bond rate was leveled down to 4.18% (a high of 4.32% on February 22). The dollar, which was close to 105p, was also below 104p. This is the result of reviving expectations for a rate cut that had retreated to the level of the Fed’s dot plot. In December, the federal interest rate based on Bloomberg WIRP fell for three consecutive trading days from a high of 4.552% (4.6% on the Fed dot plot) on February 27 to 4.415% on March 1.
   In particular, PCE prices, consumer spending, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index and ISM manufacturing index were released over the weekend, confirming that the de-inflationary phase was in place while reaffirming a clear slowdown in the U.S. economy.
   In other words, weak inflation + economic data have rekindled expectations for a U.S. rate cut, leading to a reversal of bond rates and the dollar’s fall. Starting in the last week of February, global stock markets are likely to turn to macro, leaving earnings behind.
   The Bad Is Good phase is expected to develop in the section of being sensitive to macro variables. If bond rates and the dollar continue to stabilize downward, the relative attractiveness of the KOSPI could be highlighted.
   Expectations for a rate cut came back late last week, but it is insignificant. I think the somewhat excessive rate cut retreat is normalized. Based on FED Watch, the probability of freezing interest rates in March is still around 95%.
   What you’re looking at is the FOMC benchmark interest rate consensus for May. The probability of a rate freeze, which soared to 87.2%, came down to 71.4%. The probability of a rate cut has been leveled up from 12.6% to 27.4%
   However, the gap between the two is still more than 40%p. We believe that there is ample room for a rate freeze to be lowered in the future and for a rate cut to be increased. The 10-year downward stability of the U.S. bond is expected to continue as expectations for a rate cut flow in until the results of the FOMC dot plot are confirmed on March 20.
   The 10-year U.S. Treasury note is currently in the range of 3.85 to 4.35%. It’s below 4% in March and expects support tests at 3.85 to 3.9%. In particular, U.S. economic data scheduled for next week is likely to be weaker than the previous month and raise inflationary stability expectations.
   Manufacturing orders in January, which are scheduled to be announced on the 6th, are expected to drop 2.9% (compared to the previous month), the largest decline since October 23rd. In the meantime, the negative expansion of manufacturing orders has had a large base effect in the previous month, but the burden is that the decline is large even though the base effect is not large this time
   The consensus is that the ISM service industry index for February, which will be announced on the 6th, will also be 53, slowing from 53.4 in January. The decline in the service industry index, which follows slowing consumption and worsening consumer sentiment, is expected to stimulate anxiety about the U.S. economy and raise expectations for a rate cut.
   The February employment data will be released on Tuesday, with the unemployment rate remaining at 3.7 percent, with the number of nonfarm workers likely to be leveled down to 200,000 from 35.3 million. In particular, average hourly wages may slow to 4.3% from 4.5% in January, spurring inflationary stabilization expectations.
   Fed Chairman Powell is scheduled to report to the House and Senate on the 6th and 7th. The benchmark interest rate consensus and global financial markets will fluctuate in response to Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks.
   However, given that expectations for a rate cut are normalized, the market is more likely to react sensitively to ambivalent remarks than hawkish ones. Even with greater volatility, it will only be short-term fluctuations, which I see as a buying opportunity in terms of short-term trading.
   Contrary to the U.S. announcement of weaker-than-expected economic results, China is reporting better-than-expected economic data. Both China’s February statistics bureau PMI and Caixin manufacturing PMI, released on March 1, exceeded expectations. The better-than-expected economic data results continue following a cut in the reserve ratio and a cut in the loan-preferred interest rate.
   Now, expectations for economic stimulus can be high again. It’s because two meetings in China are scheduled from the 4th to the 5th. In this two meetings, the GDP growth target is around 5%, which is expected to be the same as in 23 years.
   However, it could be interpreted as a surprise if the fiscal deficit target is set higher than the previous year (3.8%) or if it suggests the issuance of special government bonds.
   At the same time, as both local government associations announced three major real estate business plans, whether the central government also emphasizes the real estate stimulus is one of the important variables.
   Following a recovery in policy confidence and investor sentiment, a favorable investment environment will be provided for the Chinese stock market if successive and detailed stimulus measures are presented beyond stimulus expectations.
   In particular, China’s February import and export growth rate, which will be announced on the 7th, is expected to expand compared to December, and February’s CPI is expected to reverse positively for the first time in five months. In this case, deflation concerns will be eased, and economic recovery expectations may flow in coupled with the economic stimulus policies of both parties in early March.
   If China’s economic instability and deflation concerns, which have been holding back the KOSPI, ease, and expectations for economic recovery that exceeded expectations for economic stimulus increase