How Much Can Tesla Give Its Dividend In 10 Years?

(In order to secure no-work income after retirement)

My personal opinion is that philosophy is important when it comes to investment, and that philosophy should be based on mathematics.

I’m posting this, and I’m going to remind myself of this time of year…

Estimated net profit of approximately KRW 10 trillion in 2023

• Assumption 1: Assume that net income grows at an average annual rate of 25% (CAGR) (a growth rate that is sufficiently possible if future business plans are successful)

Net profit of KRW 93 trillion in 2033

• Assumption 2: Apple’s shareholder return rate is applied to Tesla (100% of shareholder return), transforming into a company that can actually allocate 100% of its net profit

Apple has earned $366.6 billion in net profit since the end of 2017, when its equity capital peaked, with $457.2 billion returned to shareholders through share buybacks ($386 billion) and cash dividends ($71.2 billion) during the same period. A larger amount of money was spent on shareholder returns than the amount earned. In addition to the profits earned over the past five years, the company returned them to shareholders.

In conclusion, from 2033, shareholder dividends of 100 trillion won can be made every year

(Current total number of shares, 3,176,000,000,000 shares)
Based on the current number of shares, KRW 31,400 per share is expected as a dividend

Current Stock Price, $234; Approximately KRW 300,000

Currently, if you buy a share with 300,000 won, you will receive a dividend of about 30,000 won 10 years later

Expected dividend yield of around 10% (Capital returns are separate)

If the average annual net profit growth rate is 30%, net profit is 137 trillion in 2033, if it is 35%, if it is 200 trillion, and if it is 40%, it is 288 trillion (For reference, Apple’s annual net profit for 2022 is about 130 trillion won)

When the average annual net income growth rate is achieved by 40%, the profit available for dividend increases by about three times, the annual dividend is 120,000 won, Dividend Return On Current Stock Price Approximately 40%

If you invest 500 million, you can receive 200 million annual dividends (at 40% growth rate)

If you invest 500 million won, you will receive an annual dividend of about 70 million won (growth rate of 30%)

(Of course, it is a pre-tax dividend, and after-tax dividends must be calculated.)